Storm Enters NYS, Brings Warmth, Rain, Possible Flooding

As forecasted, the low pressure system will be moving through today, providing NYS with seasonably warm temperatures and rain. Some parts of western and central NY, along with some of the higher elevations, could receive a little snow at the tail end of the precipitation. A few rumbles of thunder may also be heard. Flooding remains a concern in rivers and streams, with the combined effects of melting snow and rainfall, especially in the Adirondacks and Catskills. Here is the flood watch issued today for these parts:

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ALBANY HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD WATCH FOR A PORTION OF EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK...INCLUDING
THE FOLLOWING AREAS...EASTERN ALBANY...EASTERN GREENE...
EASTERN SCHENECTADY...EASTERN ULSTER...HAMILTON...MONTGOMERY...
NORTHERN FULTON...NORTHERN HERKIMER...SCHOHARIE...SOUTHERN
FULTON...SOUTHERN HERKIMER...SOUTHERN SARATOGA...WESTERN
ALBANY...WESTERN GREENE...WESTERN SCHENECTADY AND WESTERN
ULSTER.

* THROUGH LATE TONIGHT

* MILD TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S
WILL RESULT IN MELTING SNOW ACROSS THE WATCH AREA. IN
ADDITION...A THIRD OF AN INCH TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF
RAIN IS EXPECTED TODAY INTO EARLY THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT WHICH WILL BRING COLDER TEMPERATURES BACK TO THE REGION
LATER TONIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT MAYBE
ENOUGH TO DISLODGE SOME OF THE ICE ON RIVERS AND STREAMS. THE
ICE CHUNKS WOULD THEN FLOAT DOWNSTREAM AND MAY FORM ICE JAMS
WHERE THE RIVERS TRANSPORT CAPACITY IS EXCEEDED. FAVORABLE
LOCATIONS FOR ICE JAMS INCLUDE...OBSTRUCTIONS IN THE CHANNEL
SUCH AS ISLANDS...LOCKS AND BRIDGE PIERS...CHANGES IN THE
CHANNEL SUCH AS BENDS...GORGES AND AREAS WHERE THE CHANNEL
NARROWS...AREAS WHERE THERE IS A CHANGE IN CHANNEL DEPTH...DEEP
WATER TO SHALLOW WATER...AND MERGERS OF RIVER CHANNELS.

* ICE JAMS CAN OCCUR SUDDENLY AND ARE HIGHLY UNSTABLE. WATER CAN
BACKUP QUICKLY BEHIND AN ICE JAM AND FLOOD AN AREA IN A MATTER
OF MINUTES. IN ADDITION...IF AN ICE JAM BREAKS A SUDDEN RELEASE
OF WATER CAN FLOOD AREAS DOWNSTREAM.

Also, looking at Buffalo's sounding from this morning, it looks like there is also the possibility of strong, gusty winds occurring in western and central NY along the cold front as it passes through. A band of moderate rain will likely accompany the wind.

The second storm, forecasted for the end of the weekend, appears to be tracking further and further off the coast. This means that most of NYS will not be getting any precipitation from it. Portions of southeastern NY might receive a light rain/snow mix Sunday morning as the system moves off the coast.

Cooler temperatures will take a hold in NYS after the passage of the second storm, as high pressure moves into the region. This high might get temporarily broken down in the middle of next week as a clipper system moves across the state, bringing light precipitation at best. The high will then rebuild after the clipper passes through.