This was probably one of the worst Mays (with the lack of severe weather) that NY has seen in a long time. The only shot I've gotten is a part of a double rainbow (which I may post later). This next week isn't looking that good for storms, except for a slight chance in western NY (where all of the storms seem to be happening this year).
There is a chance for thunderstorms across NY this Wednesday, but that's being highly optimistic at this point and time. The models have the cold front of the system coming through NY in the overnight through early afternoon hours. If that frontal passage comes through just a few hours later than what is currently anticipated, we might have a chance at some severe weather.
At least we're not the only ones without severe weather. The poor people with Vortex2 are missing out big time because of this unfavorable weather pattern. There hasn't even been a moderate risk area anywhere in the U.S. since the 15th.
In the meantime, I'll be catching up on my sleep.
Sunday, May 31, 2009
Wednesday, May 27, 2009
Boomers On The Way... Past Reports For Now
As NY prepares for another round of thunderstorms for the second half of the week, we need to take a look back at last weekend's severe weather reports...
The 23rd provided NY with a few severe reports from a cluster of cells in southern NY. General thunderstorms impacted a good portion of NY that day:
05/23/09:
The next day was a bit more active, with a cluster of reports in southern NY and southern New England. What was interesting was the SPC never issued a watch for southern New England, which surprised me and many others:
05/24/09:
The 23rd provided NY with a few severe reports from a cluster of cells in southern NY. General thunderstorms impacted a good portion of NY that day:
05/23/09:
The next day was a bit more active, with a cluster of reports in southern NY and southern New England. What was interesting was the SPC never issued a watch for southern New England, which surprised me and many others:
05/24/09:
Friday, May 22, 2009
Possible End To Snoozefest 2009
After almost a full week of catching up on its sleep, severe weather may be back in NY tomorrow.
It has definitely been a unique Spring week...Nothing happening across most of the country, except in the Southeast, where parts of Florida have received over two FEET of rain over the past several days, due to the on-again off-again 90L, which is trying to reorganize itself before it pushes up through the middle of the country.
Here's the link to some extraordinary pictures taken at the Daytona International Speedway: Daytona flood pictures
Cloudcover will be an issue in NY again tomorrow as far as severe weather is concerned. With sufficient daytime heating, the atmosphere could destabilize enough for some hail and strong (but not severe) winds. These storms will likely be concentrated to central and southern NY, with some lingering cells edging their way into eastern NY late in the day.
It has definitely been a unique Spring week...Nothing happening across most of the country, except in the Southeast, where parts of Florida have received over two FEET of rain over the past several days, due to the on-again off-again 90L, which is trying to reorganize itself before it pushes up through the middle of the country.
Here's the link to some extraordinary pictures taken at the Daytona International Speedway: Daytona flood pictures
Cloudcover will be an issue in NY again tomorrow as far as severe weather is concerned. With sufficient daytime heating, the atmosphere could destabilize enough for some hail and strong (but not severe) winds. These storms will likely be concentrated to central and southern NY, with some lingering cells edging their way into eastern NY late in the day.
Sunday, May 17, 2009
Two Tornadoes Now Confirmed From Yesterday's Storms
A Public Information Statement from the NWS:
... Tornadoes confirmed in Cortland and Madison counties...
Location... Georgetown... Madison County NY
date... may 16th 2009
estimated time... 434 to 447 PM
maximum ef-scale rating... EF2
estimated maximum wind speed... 100 to 120 mph
maximum path width... 150 yards
path length... 6.5 miles
beginning lat/Lon... 42.75n / 75.77w
ending lat/Lon... 42.77n / 75.67w
*injuries... 1
*note these numbers could change after issuance of this product.
... Summary...
most of the damage along the path was to trees. Significant damage
occurred approximately 1 mile south of the Village of Georgetown. A
large barn was destroyed... a roof was torn off a house and several
outbuildings and sheds were destroyed. Electrical poles were
snapped. This location is where the injury occurred. A second farm
on Upham Road was hit... destroying a large barn... silo and a couple
sheds. Some livestock was lost at this location. A Farmstead near
Niles Road also received damage to a silo... and damage to the home
roof and siding.
... Tornado confirmed in Cuyler New York...
Location... Cuyler... Cortland County NY
date... may 16th 2009
estimated time... 424 PM
maximum ef-scale rating... EF0
estimated maximum wind speed... 70 to 80 mph
maximum path width... 75 yards
path length... 0.4 miles
beginning/ending lat/Lon... 42.72n / 75.90w
*note these numbers could change after issuance of this product.
... Summary...
some trees uprooted and two small sheds destroyed. Greater damage
occurred to the west at a couple of farms and several residences
between Truxton and Cuyler which was determined to be caused
by straight line winds.
----------
UPDATE
Some articles:
wsyr9.com ABC Central NY
wktv.com News Channel 2 Utica
... Tornadoes confirmed in Cortland and Madison counties...
Location... Georgetown... Madison County NY
date... may 16th 2009
estimated time... 434 to 447 PM
maximum ef-scale rating... EF2
estimated maximum wind speed... 100 to 120 mph
maximum path width... 150 yards
path length... 6.5 miles
beginning lat/Lon... 42.75n / 75.77w
ending lat/Lon... 42.77n / 75.67w
*injuries... 1
*note these numbers could change after issuance of this product.
... Summary...
most of the damage along the path was to trees. Significant damage
occurred approximately 1 mile south of the Village of Georgetown. A
large barn was destroyed... a roof was torn off a house and several
outbuildings and sheds were destroyed. Electrical poles were
snapped. This location is where the injury occurred. A second farm
on Upham Road was hit... destroying a large barn... silo and a couple
sheds. Some livestock was lost at this location. A Farmstead near
Niles Road also received damage to a silo... and damage to the home
roof and siding.
... Tornado confirmed in Cuyler New York...
Location... Cuyler... Cortland County NY
date... may 16th 2009
estimated time... 424 PM
maximum ef-scale rating... EF0
estimated maximum wind speed... 70 to 80 mph
maximum path width... 75 yards
path length... 0.4 miles
beginning/ending lat/Lon... 42.72n / 75.90w
*note these numbers could change after issuance of this product.
... Summary...
some trees uprooted and two small sheds destroyed. Greater damage
occurred to the west at a couple of farms and several residences
between Truxton and Cuyler which was determined to be caused
by straight line winds.
----------
UPDATE
Some articles:
wsyr9.com ABC Central NY
wktv.com News Channel 2 Utica
Tornado In Tioga County During Yesterday's Severe Weather
Wind, hail, and a tornado report can be seen cluttering the SPC Storm Report map over NY. Yesterday, an advancing frontal system pushed through NY. The warm sector was conducive to single-cell severe storms, which meandered across portions of central and southern NY during the afternoon hours:
05/16/09:
Once again, the timing of the system gave the western 2/3 of NY the upper-hand in instability, compared to the eastern 1/3 of NY. I heard a rumble of thunder from IC lightning every now and then as the main line pushed through Albany, but was otherwise uneventful.
05/16/09:
Once again, the timing of the system gave the western 2/3 of NY the upper-hand in instability, compared to the eastern 1/3 of NY. I heard a rumble of thunder from IC lightning every now and then as the main line pushed through Albany, but was otherwise uneventful.
Tuesday, May 12, 2009
Storm Reports From This Weekend
A hail report squeaked its way into NY Friday ahead of the main day of storms, as a couple of isolated cells that night showed severe potential, with the one producing:
05/08/09:
Saturday was the big day across NY and the Northeast. The Capital District saw some thunderstorms, but I wasn't able to get any good pictures, save a video or two of some interesting cloud structures. MA and NH each saw weak tornadoes as the storm pushed east, which makes me extremely jealous:
05/09/09:
There is a new threat lining up for NY and the Northeast this upcoming Saturday. Unfortunately, this is my graduation weekend, and I will be occupied with other things for most of the day Saturday. Hopefully I get to see something interesting.
05/08/09:
Saturday was the big day across NY and the Northeast. The Capital District saw some thunderstorms, but I wasn't able to get any good pictures, save a video or two of some interesting cloud structures. MA and NH each saw weak tornadoes as the storm pushed east, which makes me extremely jealous:
05/09/09:
There is a new threat lining up for NY and the Northeast this upcoming Saturday. Unfortunately, this is my graduation weekend, and I will be occupied with other things for most of the day Saturday. Hopefully I get to see something interesting.
Saturday, May 9, 2009
Severe Weather in New York State Nearing Imminence
Greetings all...It is currently 1609 UTC, and much of New York State is under a "Slight" risk for severe thunderstorms by the SPC. Albany is literally smack in the middle of this threat zone, with 5% chance for damaging tornadoes and 15% chance for damaging wind/large hail. Several of us Metards will be attempting to "chase" later on assuming things heat up nicely. As detailed by Mark Ellinwood in yesterday's post, L-I-F-T is present and is increasing as we get insolation. Some nice graphics are appended, and more updates (possibly from the road) will follow.....
...cue Van Halen's "Humans Being", maestro!
1630 UTC UPDATE (from Ellinwood):
SPC has updated the wind threat to a 30% chance over NY:
A severe thunderstorm watch has also been issued for most of NY:
Friday, May 8, 2009
Severe Weather Possible Tomorrow
NY is primed for thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon and evening. A shortwave trough will speed through the region, bringing strong upper-level dynamics into a somewhat-unstable atmosphere. All of this spells "L-I-F-T," which could lead to some severe weather.
SPC still seems to be underplaying the probability for severe weather, keeping most of NY in the 5% region. However, the 15% bubble has been slowly creeping north over the last few days, which may mean good things for further upstate.
The main concern is that wonderful stuff we like to call "clouds." If the Sun can break them up sufficiently tomorrow, we can see the chance for severe weather rise pretty quickly.
Great wind profile, SFC CAPE progged by NAM and GFS to be around 1000 J/kg... gonna be a good day!
Also expect strong winds following the frontal passage as the powerful shortwave pushes east Saturday night into Sunday.
(click sounding to enlarge)
SPC still seems to be underplaying the probability for severe weather, keeping most of NY in the 5% region. However, the 15% bubble has been slowly creeping north over the last few days, which may mean good things for further upstate.
The main concern is that wonderful stuff we like to call "clouds." If the Sun can break them up sufficiently tomorrow, we can see the chance for severe weather rise pretty quickly.
Great wind profile, SFC CAPE progged by NAM and GFS to be around 1000 J/kg... gonna be a good day!
Also expect strong winds following the frontal passage as the powerful shortwave pushes east Saturday night into Sunday.
(click sounding to enlarge)
Sunday, May 3, 2009
Another Week Of No Boomers Ahead For NY
The models are not supporting any type of severe weather, or even general thunderstorms, for most of NY for the upcoming week. I'm starting to lose my patience, as the last few attempts of a thunderstorm in Albany either never happened, or died out before reaching us.
Perhaps a shower or two will be around in the upcoming week, with some areas of heavier rain. NYC and Long Island could see some good amounts of precip by the end of the week. Other than that, temps will be near average for this time of the year. We may see a slight warm-up towards the second half of the week, but it will also be accompanied by cloudy skies and occasional precip.
Sorry I waited until the last day to make the minimum of two updates. It's been a very busy week.
Perhaps a shower or two will be around in the upcoming week, with some areas of heavier rain. NYC and Long Island could see some good amounts of precip by the end of the week. Other than that, temps will be near average for this time of the year. We may see a slight warm-up towards the second half of the week, but it will also be accompanied by cloudy skies and occasional precip.
Sorry I waited until the last day to make the minimum of two updates. It's been a very busy week.
Research On Marcellus And Utica Tornadoes Complete
I've finished my research for the 29 July 2006 tornadoes of Marcellus and Utica, NY. I will not post my results quite yet, as I will probably need to clean it up a bit and maybe try to get it published.
At any rate, here's the original abstract:
On 29 July 2006, a line of storms produced two F0 tornadoes in Marcellus and Utica, NY at approximately 2000Z and 1930Z, respectively. To investigate the cause of these tornadoes, an analysis of the synoptic, mesoscale and air column data was performed. The synoptic analysis of the surface and upper-levels indicates forcing for ascent along a surface cold front, which was enhanced by a weak 300 hPa jet streak aloft. Air column data suggests thermodynamic forcing for ascent in the mid- and upper-levels from Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE). Forcing for ascent is also indicated by the veering wind profile and wind speeds increasing with height throughout most of the troposphere. The analysis of the mesoscale data reveals the true culprit behind the tornadogenesis that occurred over Marcellus and Utica.
At any rate, here's the original abstract:
On 29 July 2006, a line of storms produced two F0 tornadoes in Marcellus and Utica, NY at approximately 2000Z and 1930Z, respectively. To investigate the cause of these tornadoes, an analysis of the synoptic, mesoscale and air column data was performed. The synoptic analysis of the surface and upper-levels indicates forcing for ascent along a surface cold front, which was enhanced by a weak 300 hPa jet streak aloft. Air column data suggests thermodynamic forcing for ascent in the mid- and upper-levels from Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE). Forcing for ascent is also indicated by the veering wind profile and wind speeds increasing with height throughout most of the troposphere. The analysis of the mesoscale data reveals the true culprit behind the tornadogenesis that occurred over Marcellus and Utica.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
