Could A Regime Change End The Cold Spell? ...And Research

Model runs are consistently showing the breakdown of a long-standing ridge over the western U.S. and eastern Pacific, which means that temps on the eastern half on the nation will warm up as the trough breaks down! Seasonal to above-average temps are expected in the coming days, which is good news for the snow haters out there (including myself).

As part of my own new regime, I plan on updating this site at least twice a week from now on. Perhaps it's time to get this thing really going.

As for my research, I have officially submitted it to the 34th Annual Northeastern Storm Conference. Below is the title and abstract for my paper. It is similar to the research I did last fall, except I've replaced the warm cases with control cases, which will strengthen the overall paper. I should be presenting this Saturday morning on March 7.


TITLE:

A Comparison Of Cold Season Non-severe Wind Storms
And Severe Wind Outbreaks In New York State


ABSTRACT:

This paper examines synoptic features associated with severe wind outbreaks in New York State (NY), and how they differ from similar outbreaks that produce strong, but mainly non-severe, winds. The differences between these events can be very subtle, but make a large impact as to whether or not the storms reach the 50 knot threshold needed to be considered severe. Being able to distinguish better between non-severe and severe wind events could help improve the accuracy and range of severe wind warnings in NY.

To determine synoptic features common to the severe wind outbreaks, three severe wind cases and three non-severe wind cases between 1 November and 21 March of the years 2005-2008 were analyzed to determine common synoptic-scale features using conventional upper air and surface data, as well as satellite and sounding data. A particular focus of the case studies was on the forcing for ascent, provided by vertical circulations associated with strong polar and subtropical jets. The sounding data also contained characteristic signatures, which help distinguish between non-severe winds and severe wind outbreaks. These common features could be used to potentially forecast future severe wind outbreaks in NY and adjacent areas.