Elevated Convection Potential In NY Tomorrow

The storm that is currently wreaking havoc from the Great Plains eastward is going to push into the northeast over the next couple of days. Most of the upper-level forcing associated with this storm will be over western NY on Sunday, and will push eastward in the afternoon and overnight hours. Elevated CAPE values in the 500-800 J/kg range will also help lift air parcels and create some interesting weather over NY tomorrow.

There is a possibility of an elevated squall line development along the cold/occluded front tomorrow across NY and PA eastward. While NY may only get a taste of it, it just needs to get far enough north to let me snap some shots of it! The only downfall is that I work tomorrow evening, so the chance to watch it depends solely on when the front plans on passing through.

From the most recent AFD from the ALY NWS:

A SECONDARY CONCERN FOR SUNDAY...WHICH COULD HAVE A DIRECT IMPACT ON
QPF AMOUNTS...IS FOR ANY ELEVATED CONVECTION. THE LATEST 12 UTC
NAM12 SHOWS FORECASTED SHOWALTER VALUES LESS THAN ZERO ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CWA JUST BEFORE THE PASSAGE OF THE OCCLUDED BOUNDARY...WITH
VALUES AS LOW AS -3.5 MOVING FROM ACROSS THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND
CAPITAL DISTRICT. THE NAM12 IS ALSO VERY IMPRESSIVE WITH FORECASTED
850-500 HPA LAPSE RATES OF 6.5-6.9 DEGREES C/KM. ALONG WITH LOCALLY
HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS...LAPSE RATES OF THIS MAGNITUDE COULD ALLOW
FOR SOME SMALL SOFT HAIL /GRAUPEL/ AS WELL. THE THREAT FOR THUNDER
WOULD BE INCREASED AS WELL IF ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
OCCUR...ALTHOUGH BOTH THE NAM12/GFS IMPLY ACCORDING TO 850 HPA RH
THAT THIS WOULD REMAIN FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL PA. INCREASING
THE CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS THE LATEST 12 UTC LOCAL HIRESWRF...WHOSE
FORECASTED COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY SHOWS A BKN CONVECTIVE LINE
DEVELOPING LATE SUN AFTN ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PA...AND ADVANCES IT
TOWARDS OUR CATSKILL/MID HUDSON VALLEY ZONES BY EVENING. SPC ALREADY
HAS OUR REGION OUTLINED IN GENERAL THUNDER...WITH A SLT RISK
REMAINING TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS SOUTH JERSEY AND THE DELMARVA.