Looks like we have a real shot at severe weather here on Staten Island tomorrow. The Storm Prediction Center has us in a "SLIGHT" risk zone, with a 30% + hatched probabilistic chance for severe weather, and Staten Island is smack dab in the middle. Looking at some NAM forecast soundings for Newark, NJ (which is the closest site to S.I.), the hours of 11:00AM - 7:00PM look to be the most promising, with the 5PM (21Z) forecast sounding the best. CAPE is forecast to be over 1600 J/kg, with a LI of -3 and 31 K-index. These numbers are great for Staten Island. There appears to be some good shear going on in the the lower levels, and lots of upper-level vorticity to keep this spin up. With temperatures as warm as they have been - upper 70s/low 80s - and an approaching storm system that has spawned widespread severe weather in the Plains, I predict that the weather tomorrow here in Staten Island will be interesting. I have work from 8:00AM - 4:00PM, so I will have to bring my camera to work to take video if things get fun.
Friday, May 30, 2008
Severe Weather for Staten Island on Saturday 5/31?!
Looks like we have a real shot at severe weather here on Staten Island tomorrow. The Storm Prediction Center has us in a "SLIGHT" risk zone, with a 30% + hatched probabilistic chance for severe weather, and Staten Island is smack dab in the middle. Looking at some NAM forecast soundings for Newark, NJ (which is the closest site to S.I.), the hours of 11:00AM - 7:00PM look to be the most promising, with the 5PM (21Z) forecast sounding the best. CAPE is forecast to be over 1600 J/kg, with a LI of -3 and 31 K-index. These numbers are great for Staten Island. There appears to be some good shear going on in the the lower levels, and lots of upper-level vorticity to keep this spin up. With temperatures as warm as they have been - upper 70s/low 80s - and an approaching storm system that has spawned widespread severe weather in the Plains, I predict that the weather tomorrow here in Staten Island will be interesting. I have work from 8:00AM - 4:00PM, so I will have to bring my camera to work to take video if things get fun.
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