I thought I would have the time to keep updating this site while in graduate school, but I don't, so I'm done here. It was fun.
- Mark Ellinwood
Sunday, October 4, 2009
Wednesday, August 5, 2009
Lack Of Updates... For Good Reason
Between work and my personal life, I have often been too tired to do things. Unfortunately, that means this site has gone onto the back burner for awhile. I am in day 3 of 7 of 8- or 9-hour work days, and then I have to pack for my move to Raleigh, NC, get accustomed to the school, and find a job and a roommate. Needless to say, all of these things cause get stress and other fun emotions and feelings that make it difficult for me to get the motivation to update the site.
- The Management
- The Management
Friday, July 10, 2009
June Was A Snoozefest... Will It Get Better?
It has been awhile since I posted... mainly due to working two jobs and figuring out the next step in my life... but who cares, time for some weather!
It certainly took awhile for June to get crankin' with the severe weather in NY. The first day was a clustered hail event from June 9th:
06/09/09:
It took another week to get severe weather to strike NY. Once again, it was a hailer, and it struck a good portion of the eastern half of the state. The lack of wind reports in June was mostly caused by having weak shear, which couldn't organize severe storms into a line. Albany got some nice hail this day, but of course I was out of town:
06/15/09:
And that's all we saw for the first 24 days of June.
Severe weather started to return to a regular summer schedule once the last week of June hit. A low pressure system came through with some decent forcing to go along with daytime heating, giving us two exciting days of severe weather:
06/25/09:
06/26/09:
Daytime heating and a weak cut-off gave us a couple of bouts of severe weather a week later, with reports coming in from eastern NY on June 30th and July 1st:
06/30/09:
07/01/09:
Up to this point, all of the storms in June that gave us severe weather were either cut-offs, or become cut-offs. A similar situation came up on July 7th, but moved out of the northeast a bit quicker than the previous storms:
07/07/09:
It looks like this trough which has been keeping us cool this summer will stick around for a bit longer. I'm hoping that it moves out before I move to NC in a month, but it does not look promising at this time.
Tomorrow is looking really good for severe weather for NY, especially western and central portions of the state. I believe the SPC has underestimated the eastward extent of the severe weather (which I have been saying for a couple of days now), and that eastern NY will get a good showing from this low pressure system as it slides into the region in the late afternoon and evening hours.
It certainly took awhile for June to get crankin' with the severe weather in NY. The first day was a clustered hail event from June 9th:
06/09/09:
It took another week to get severe weather to strike NY. Once again, it was a hailer, and it struck a good portion of the eastern half of the state. The lack of wind reports in June was mostly caused by having weak shear, which couldn't organize severe storms into a line. Albany got some nice hail this day, but of course I was out of town:
06/15/09:
And that's all we saw for the first 24 days of June.
Severe weather started to return to a regular summer schedule once the last week of June hit. A low pressure system came through with some decent forcing to go along with daytime heating, giving us two exciting days of severe weather:
06/25/09:
06/26/09:
Daytime heating and a weak cut-off gave us a couple of bouts of severe weather a week later, with reports coming in from eastern NY on June 30th and July 1st:
06/30/09:
07/01/09:
Up to this point, all of the storms in June that gave us severe weather were either cut-offs, or become cut-offs. A similar situation came up on July 7th, but moved out of the northeast a bit quicker than the previous storms:
07/07/09:
It looks like this trough which has been keeping us cool this summer will stick around for a bit longer. I'm hoping that it moves out before I move to NC in a month, but it does not look promising at this time.
Tomorrow is looking really good for severe weather for NY, especially western and central portions of the state. I believe the SPC has underestimated the eastward extent of the severe weather (which I have been saying for a couple of days now), and that eastern NY will get a good showing from this low pressure system as it slides into the region in the late afternoon and evening hours.
Thursday, July 9, 2009
New York State Goes Green on 7 July 2009
Tuesday afternoon/night was an active one meteorologically speaking. Around 2:30PM (when I was getting ready to end my shift at work) intense rain came through the area. Flash Flood Warnings and Severe Thunderstorm Watches covered my area. I even saw very small hail (not large enough though to warrant snapping a cell phone picture). Lightning and thunder also made a very welcome visit to the area.
The appended images show the Storm Prediction Center's forecast and verification (storm reports) for the period around 7 July 2009.
Verification:
The attached base reflectivity images for 0300 - O500 UTC 8 July 2009 show very nice severe cells moving southeastward from New Jersey into New York Metro area.
When I came to work at KTEB yesterday morning, Chris and I immediately began discussing the situation to see if the damage reported was tornadic or straight-line wind related. Speaking with Dan (who was at the other office) we were discussing how it must have been straight-line wind, because the SRM and model soundings were crap.
Here is the Public Information Statement from NOAA NWS OKX:
http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&product=PNS&issuedby=OKX
Well I should get back to work...and by that I mean looking at METARs and GFS loops until we get a phone call or have to record a radio forecast.
The appended images show the Storm Prediction Center's forecast and verification (storm reports) for the period around 7 July 2009.
Verification:
The attached base reflectivity images for 0300 - O500 UTC 8 July 2009 show very nice severe cells moving southeastward from New Jersey into New York Metro area.
When I came to work at KTEB yesterday morning, Chris and I immediately began discussing the situation to see if the damage reported was tornadic or straight-line wind related. Speaking with Dan (who was at the other office) we were discussing how it must have been straight-line wind, because the SRM and model soundings were crap.
Here is the Public Information Statement from NOAA NWS OKX:
http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&product=PNS&issuedby=OKX
Well I should get back to work...and by that I mean looking at METARs and GFS loops until we get a phone call or have to record a radio forecast.
Thursday, June 25, 2009
NYC Severe Weather Threat for 26 June 2009
Well after what seems like an eternal wait, New York City is in the middle of a nice big SLGT by the SPC. The beginning of this week was plagued by a pesky upper-level cut-off low parked near Cape Cod, bringing rain showers and below-climo temps to our region. Finally, we have a nice set up for hot summer days and good convection.
The SPC Day 2 outlook right now has NYC under a SLGT, with a 15% categorical outlook. A series of shortwave troughs are expected to help amplify the weak zonal pattern we've had for weeks. SBCAPE should build throughout the day to over 3000 J/kg after 1800 UTC.
This is the NAM's forecast precipitation/pressure/isotherms for 00UTC 27 June 2009. Other more high-resolution models show much more precip, and PWATs are progged to be at least 1.5 inches. Here is the SPC forecast:
Upper level jet dynamics are decent, with a 60-kt jet streak at 250-hPa with NYC being placed in the right entrance region. Strong cyclonic vorticity advection at 500-hPa is present and the GFS is most aggressive with the negative tilting of the trough. Mixing rations of 12+ g/kg are present, so our atmosphere will be nice and moist.
More updates will follow as I try to stay awake.
The SPC Day 2 outlook right now has NYC under a SLGT, with a 15% categorical outlook. A series of shortwave troughs are expected to help amplify the weak zonal pattern we've had for weeks. SBCAPE should build throughout the day to over 3000 J/kg after 1800 UTC.
This is the NAM's forecast precipitation/pressure/isotherms for 00UTC 27 June 2009. Other more high-resolution models show much more precip, and PWATs are progged to be at least 1.5 inches. Here is the SPC forecast:
Upper level jet dynamics are decent, with a 60-kt jet streak at 250-hPa with NYC being placed in the right entrance region. Strong cyclonic vorticity advection at 500-hPa is present and the GFS is most aggressive with the negative tilting of the trough. Mixing rations of 12+ g/kg are present, so our atmosphere will be nice and moist.
More updates will follow as I try to stay awake.
Sunday, June 7, 2009
Severe Weather Just Around The Corner
The next couple of days are looking somewhat favorable for severe weather in NY. At the moment, it does not look like there will be much. Most of the action will depend on the placement of the fronts, which favors western and southern portions of NY at this time. Further north, expect showers and thunderstorms as well, but these storms will be elevated. Strong winds and small hail will be possible with these storms. The GFS has more favorable severe weather conditions further north than the NAM does, but the GFS is bringing the line further and further south as we approach game time.
At any rate, some of NY could get a nice light show from these storms. My camera will be ready.
Also, sorry for only 1 update again this week... been having problems with my computer (I have completely reformatted and reinstalled stuff over the weekend).
At any rate, some of NY could get a nice light show from these storms. My camera will be ready.
Also, sorry for only 1 update again this week... been having problems with my computer (I have completely reformatted and reinstalled stuff over the weekend).
Sunday, May 31, 2009
Cold... Then Seasonal... Boomers Are But A Distant Memory
This was probably one of the worst Mays (with the lack of severe weather) that NY has seen in a long time. The only shot I've gotten is a part of a double rainbow (which I may post later). This next week isn't looking that good for storms, except for a slight chance in western NY (where all of the storms seem to be happening this year).
There is a chance for thunderstorms across NY this Wednesday, but that's being highly optimistic at this point and time. The models have the cold front of the system coming through NY in the overnight through early afternoon hours. If that frontal passage comes through just a few hours later than what is currently anticipated, we might have a chance at some severe weather.
At least we're not the only ones without severe weather. The poor people with Vortex2 are missing out big time because of this unfavorable weather pattern. There hasn't even been a moderate risk area anywhere in the U.S. since the 15th.
In the meantime, I'll be catching up on my sleep.
There is a chance for thunderstorms across NY this Wednesday, but that's being highly optimistic at this point and time. The models have the cold front of the system coming through NY in the overnight through early afternoon hours. If that frontal passage comes through just a few hours later than what is currently anticipated, we might have a chance at some severe weather.
At least we're not the only ones without severe weather. The poor people with Vortex2 are missing out big time because of this unfavorable weather pattern. There hasn't even been a moderate risk area anywhere in the U.S. since the 15th.
In the meantime, I'll be catching up on my sleep.
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