Snow To Wreak Havoc In Southeastern NY And The East Coast

A powerful storm is already creating quite a mess in parts of the southeastern US today, and will make its way up the east coast tonight, bringing heavy snow to NYC and southeastern NY.

All of the models are in pretty strong agreement as to the path and timing of this storm as it progresses north and east. The UKMET is the only major deviation, with a more easterly track, which would spell lighter snow accumulations for NY. Most of the other models are calling for a big QPF of 1-1.2" over NYC, which will equate to 8-14" of snow by Monday afternoon. Long Island is likely to see even more, with an estimated 12-18" of snow, since it will be in the more intense area of precipitation. This will make it a real headache for people to get anywhere in NYC and Long Island.

Here are the NAM and GFS 24-hour forecasts for 6-hour QPF (to fall just before the morning commute on Monday):



This storm is going to inundate much of the east coast, including the major metropolitan areas of Washington, D.C., NYC and Boston. It's the storm that's been long in the making, and many people were sure/hoping it was going to come. I have a feeling a lot of people are going to stay home on Monday.

Here's a little awesomeness from Atlanta, GA:
KATL 011752Z 32015KT 1/4SM R09R/3500V4500FT +TSSN FG OVC004CB 01/00 A2972 RMK AO2 TSB37 SLP067 OCNL LTGIC OHD TS OHD-ALQDS MOV SW 4/001 P0013 60060 T00060000 10067 20006 51013

Heavy thundersnow, with an inch of snow falling in that hour!

The snowfall amounts quickly drop off in NY as you move north and west. Albany is on the outer fringe of the larger snowfall area, and is expected to receive 2-5" from this storm. Parts of western and central NY will see some lake effect snow on the order of 1-3" as the storm moves off the coast. Lake effect accumulations are light because the winds will be northerly, which gives the air less time to gather moisture from Lake Ontario and Lake Erie.

The rest of the work week looks to be pretty fair in NY, with a chance of mixed precipitation on Friday and Saturday.

UPDATE:
Following the trends of the newer model runs, I'm upgrading the Albany snowfall total to 4-6". Isn't nowcasting fun?

Duo Snowstorms Pack A One-Two Punch

The last weekend of holiday shopping before Christmas was hindered in NYS by two snowstorms, which caused havoc on the roadways.

The first storm arrived on Friday, 12/19/08, around noontime at Albany. Conditions quickly worsened, as heavy snowfall limited visibility and made roads treacherous. The main part of the storm went on throughout the afternoon, and diminished in the evening hours. Flurries continued throughout the night, adding another inch or so to the storm total. Snowfall totals in the Albany area for this storm was between 8-10 inches.

Two days later, on Sunday, 12/21/08, a second storm rolled into the Capital Region in the late morning hours. Snowfall continued until the early evening, which provided the Albany area with another 6-8 inches of the white stuff.

My forecasts for both days for the Albany area was 7-9 inches for the Friday storm (which is what most people got), and 6-8 inches for the Sunday storm (nailed it!). Two for two so far... let's see how the rest of the season goes.

So here I sit, with 16 inches of snow at my front door. Add these storms to the ice storm from last week, and you've got one crazy start to the winter season!

Winter Storm Rocks NYS, New England

12/12/08:
A coastal storm ramped up and slammed into NYS and New England Thursday and Friday, leaving a massive streak of ice and flooding in its wake. Not even Albany was spared from the onslaught of ice, which accumulated up to an inch or more in areas. Due to the nature of the storm, with a warm layer aloft and northerly winds at the surface bringing in subfreezing temperatures to all local areas, despite the difference in elevation. This caused the entire region to get freezing rain, which was in abundance due to the high amount of moisture that was drawn northwards by the storm.
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While the city kept its power going throughout most of the storm, many others in the outlying neighborhoods spent the weekend without power, which may not return until later this week.

Many schools canceled afternoon activities on Thursday, as the winter storm crept its way into the region. The storm dumped heavy rain over the region Thursday evening into Friday morning, which turned to ice due to the below-freezing temperatures at the surface. Tens of thousands lost power overnight, as ice caused power lines and trees to fall. Many people spent their Fridays at home, stranded because of the ice storm.

Some of those without power also suffered from flooding, as sump pumps sat idle without a power source. A fortunate few without power were able to purchase a generator to keep their losses to a minimum. One person I spoke to visited as many as 15 stores looking for this weekend's number one most-sold product in the region before finally getting the last available generator at that store.

The University At Albany, one of the few schools to have power on (most) of the campus Friday, remained open for finals, despite the inability of some students and professors to commute to the school.

Cleanup will continue through the week, as energy companies rush to restore power throughout the region.