June Was A Snoozefest... Will It Get Better?

It has been awhile since I posted... mainly due to working two jobs and figuring out the next step in my life... but who cares, time for some weather!

It certainly took awhile for June to get crankin' with the severe weather in NY. The first day was a clustered hail event from June 9th:

06/09/09:



It took another week to get severe weather to strike NY. Once again, it was a hailer, and it struck a good portion of the eastern half of the state. The lack of wind reports in June was mostly caused by having weak shear, which couldn't organize severe storms into a line. Albany got some nice hail this day, but of course I was out of town:

06/15/09:



And that's all we saw for the first 24 days of June.

Severe weather started to return to a regular summer schedule once the last week of June hit. A low pressure system came through with some decent forcing to go along with daytime heating, giving us two exciting days of severe weather:

06/25/09:


06/26/09:



Daytime heating and a weak cut-off gave us a couple of bouts of severe weather a week later, with reports coming in from eastern NY on June 30th and July 1st:

06/30/09:


07/01/09:



Up to this point, all of the storms in June that gave us severe weather were either cut-offs, or become cut-offs. A similar situation came up on July 7th, but moved out of the northeast a bit quicker than the previous storms:

07/07/09:



It looks like this trough which has been keeping us cool this summer will stick around for a bit longer. I'm hoping that it moves out before I move to NC in a month, but it does not look promising at this time.

Tomorrow is looking really good for severe weather for NY, especially western and central portions of the state. I believe the SPC has underestimated the eastward extent of the severe weather (which I have been saying for a couple of days now), and that eastern NY will get a good showing from this low pressure system as it slides into the region in the late afternoon and evening hours.

Severe Weather Just Around The Corner

The next couple of days are looking somewhat favorable for severe weather in NY. At the moment, it does not look like there will be much. Most of the action will depend on the placement of the fronts, which favors western and southern portions of NY at this time. Further north, expect showers and thunderstorms as well, but these storms will be elevated. Strong winds and small hail will be possible with these storms. The GFS has more favorable severe weather conditions further north than the NAM does, but the GFS is bringing the line further and further south as we approach game time.

At any rate, some of NY could get a nice light show from these storms. My camera will be ready.

Also, sorry for only 1 update again this week... been having problems with my computer (I have completely reformatted and reinstalled stuff over the weekend).

Cold... Then Seasonal... Boomers Are But A Distant Memory

This was probably one of the worst Mays (with the lack of severe weather) that NY has seen in a long time. The only shot I've gotten is a part of a double rainbow (which I may post later). This next week isn't looking that good for storms, except for a slight chance in western NY (where all of the storms seem to be happening this year).

There is a chance for thunderstorms across NY this Wednesday, but that's being highly optimistic at this point and time. The models have the cold front of the system coming through NY in the overnight through early afternoon hours. If that frontal passage comes through just a few hours later than what is currently anticipated, we might have a chance at some severe weather.

At least we're not the only ones without severe weather. The poor people with Vortex2 are missing out big time because of this unfavorable weather pattern. There hasn't even been a moderate risk area anywhere in the U.S. since the 15th.

In the meantime, I'll be catching up on my sleep.

Possible End To Snoozefest 2009

After almost a full week of catching up on its sleep, severe weather may be back in NY tomorrow.

It has definitely been a unique Spring week...Nothing happening across most of the country, except in the Southeast, where parts of Florida have received over two FEET of rain over the past several days, due to the on-again off-again 90L, which is trying to reorganize itself before it pushes up through the middle of the country.

Here's the link to some extraordinary pictures taken at the Daytona International Speedway: Daytona flood pictures

Cloudcover will be an issue in NY again tomorrow as far as severe weather is concerned. With sufficient daytime heating, the atmosphere could destabilize enough for some hail and strong (but not severe) winds. These storms will likely be concentrated to central and southern NY, with some lingering cells edging their way into eastern NY late in the day.

Severe Weather in New York State Nearing Imminence

Greetings all...It is currently 1609 UTC, and much of New York State is under a "Slight" risk for severe thunderstorms by the SPC. Albany is literally smack in the middle of this threat zone, with 5% chance for damaging tornadoes and 15% chance for damaging wind/large hail. Several of us Metards will be attempting to "chase" later on assuming things heat up nicely. As detailed by Mark Ellinwood in yesterday's post, L-I-F-T is present and is increasing as we get insolation. Some nice graphics are appended, and more updates (possibly from the road) will follow.....

...cue Van Halen's "Humans Being", maestro!



1630 UTC UPDATE (from Ellinwood):

SPC has updated the wind threat to a 30% chance over NY:


A severe thunderstorm watch has also been issued for most of NY:

Severe Weather Possible Tomorrow

NY is primed for thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon and evening. A shortwave trough will speed through the region, bringing strong upper-level dynamics into a somewhat-unstable atmosphere. All of this spells "L-I-F-T," which could lead to some severe weather.

SPC still seems to be underplaying the probability for severe weather, keeping most of NY in the 5% region. However, the 15% bubble has been slowly creeping north over the last few days, which may mean good things for further upstate.

The main concern is that wonderful stuff we like to call "clouds." If the Sun can break them up sufficiently tomorrow, we can see the chance for severe weather rise pretty quickly.

Great wind profile, SFC CAPE progged by NAM and GFS to be around 1000 J/kg... gonna be a good day!

Also expect strong winds following the frontal passage as the powerful shortwave pushes east Saturday night into Sunday.




(click sounding to enlarge)

Another Week Of No Boomers Ahead For NY

The models are not supporting any type of severe weather, or even general thunderstorms, for most of NY for the upcoming week. I'm starting to lose my patience, as the last few attempts of a thunderstorm in Albany either never happened, or died out before reaching us.

Perhaps a shower or two will be around in the upcoming week, with some areas of heavier rain. NYC and Long Island could see some good amounts of precip by the end of the week. Other than that, temps will be near average for this time of the year. We may see a slight warm-up towards the second half of the week, but it will also be accompanied by cloudy skies and occasional precip.

Sorry I waited until the last day to make the minimum of two updates. It's been a very busy week.

Thunderstorms And Severe Weather May Push Into The Northeast

Over the next few days, an upper-level trough will work its way out of the southern Great plains and push northeast through the Midwest. It's looking like NY will see two bursts of precipitation associated with this trough tomorrow and Tuesday. The first one will be along an occluded front of a weakening system that is currently centered over the southern Great Plains. The most southern parts of NY could hear some rumbles of thunder from elevated convection with this first line of storms as it pushes through tomorrow evening. Both the GFS and NAM are in excellent agreement as to the timing and amount of precipitation associated with this line of storms.

As this storm lifts out of the upper-level trough, another system will dig into the trough, briefly intensifying it Tuesday before the trough lifts off to the northeast. This could provide southern and eastern NY with a brief period in the warm sector of the low pressure system, which could fuel some decent thunderstorms. A few of these storms may produce small hail and gusty (but non-severe) winds.

Tomorrow:


Tuesday:


But all of this is nothing compared to what we have coming up.

Over the weekend, we're looking at the first real chance for good severe weather in NY. A strong ridge will be in place over the eastern US during the week, and will provide a nice southerly flow in the latter part of the week. This will help draw Gulf moisture and warm temperatures into NY ahead of an upper-level trough, which will be digging down from central Canada. This trough is progged by the GFS to bottom-out just to the west of NY. The GFS may be a little bold with the strength of the instability at this point and time, but high temperatures this weekend are forecast to be a bit warmer than the GFS indicates (as the GFS trends towards climo this far out), so it could also be underplaying some aspects of the instability as well.

Based on the GFS forecast, it looks like a line of storms oriented SW-NE will push east along a cold front through NY Sunday afternoon, providing strong winds and some hail. This is definitely THE storm to track through the upcoming week. Hopefully it will pan out!

Sunday afternoon:

Another Chance For Elevated Convection For Monday. Also, Snow...

As yet another low pressure system pushes into the Northeast, NY is faced with the possibility of thunderstorms associated with elevated convection. The thunderstorms are expected to pop up along an occluded front Monday morning, and push northeast from western NY to eastern NY throughout the mid-morning and afternoon hours.

The GFS is being a lot more generous than the NAM with elevated CAPE in NY, with values of over 800 J/kg over Albany at around 2pm EDT. NAM is suggesting more moist mid- and upper-levels, with elevated CAPE values of less than 100 J/kg. P-Wat values of about one inch will help fuel the storms as they push through NY.

The main discrepancy between the models is the overall strength of the mid- and upper-level jets over NY. The GFS is forecasting stronger mid- and upper-level winds, which would advect steeper lapse rates into these levels and provide the larger elevated CAPE values. I tend to go with a mean value over Albany, since the GFS tends to overestimate CAPE values, and the NAM slightly underestimates it. Realistically, I would expect Albany to hit elevated CAPE values of 200-300 J/kg...enough to trigger some boomers!

This line of possible thunderstorms will also bring heavy rain, with a large portion of NY progged to receive over half an inch of precipitation. Lesser values are forecasted for areas not fully affected by this line of storms.

Following the passage of the occluded front, snow is expected throughout most of NY. Temps will reach below freezing at times in much of the western half of NY, which could see some snow accumulations. Areas affected by lake effect could see very generous snowfall totals for this time of the year, with 3-6"+ expected in the stronger lake-effect bands. In the eastern half of NY, temps will be a bit warmer, so valley areas could see some snow showers mixed with rain, but little to no accumulation. Elevations above 1200' in eastern NY can expect to see some snow accumulation from the trailing end of this storm.

Elevated Convection Potential In NY Tomorrow

The storm that is currently wreaking havoc from the Great Plains eastward is going to push into the northeast over the next couple of days. Most of the upper-level forcing associated with this storm will be over western NY on Sunday, and will push eastward in the afternoon and overnight hours. Elevated CAPE values in the 500-800 J/kg range will also help lift air parcels and create some interesting weather over NY tomorrow.

There is a possibility of an elevated squall line development along the cold/occluded front tomorrow across NY and PA eastward. While NY may only get a taste of it, it just needs to get far enough north to let me snap some shots of it! The only downfall is that I work tomorrow evening, so the chance to watch it depends solely on when the front plans on passing through.

From the most recent AFD from the ALY NWS:

A SECONDARY CONCERN FOR SUNDAY...WHICH COULD HAVE A DIRECT IMPACT ON
QPF AMOUNTS...IS FOR ANY ELEVATED CONVECTION. THE LATEST 12 UTC
NAM12 SHOWS FORECASTED SHOWALTER VALUES LESS THAN ZERO ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CWA JUST BEFORE THE PASSAGE OF THE OCCLUDED BOUNDARY...WITH
VALUES AS LOW AS -3.5 MOVING FROM ACROSS THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND
CAPITAL DISTRICT. THE NAM12 IS ALSO VERY IMPRESSIVE WITH FORECASTED
850-500 HPA LAPSE RATES OF 6.5-6.9 DEGREES C/KM. ALONG WITH LOCALLY
HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS...LAPSE RATES OF THIS MAGNITUDE COULD ALLOW
FOR SOME SMALL SOFT HAIL /GRAUPEL/ AS WELL. THE THREAT FOR THUNDER
WOULD BE INCREASED AS WELL IF ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
OCCUR...ALTHOUGH BOTH THE NAM12/GFS IMPLY ACCORDING TO 850 HPA RH
THAT THIS WOULD REMAIN FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL PA. INCREASING
THE CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS THE LATEST 12 UTC LOCAL HIRESWRF...WHOSE
FORECASTED COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY SHOWS A BKN CONVECTIVE LINE
DEVELOPING LATE SUN AFTN ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PA...AND ADVANCES IT
TOWARDS OUR CATSKILL/MID HUDSON VALLEY ZONES BY EVENING. SPC ALREADY
HAS OUR REGION OUTLINED IN GENERAL THUNDER...WITH A SLT RISK
REMAINING TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS SOUTH JERSEY AND THE DELMARVA.

Strong Severe Outbreak Potential For The Southeast March 27-28

Though the exact timing and overall strength of the storm is still debatable, the models are agreeing that a significant storm will dig down from the Northwest into the large scale upper-level trough that is currently over the central U.S. during the second half of the work week. The main discrepancy in timing the storm lies as to whether or not the storm will cut-off, or remain in the main flow. This storm has the potential to wreak havoc from eastern Texas eastward across the Southeast. On the other side of the storm, widespread winter weather is possible for areas as far south as northern Texas, in a swath that extends north and east into the Great Lakes as time progresses.

The general consensus among the models shows an impressive upper-level vort max digging into the Texas region Friday as it bottoms out in the large-scale trough. An upper-level jet in the base of the trough will provide southwesterly winds, which will draw the dry upper-level air off of the Mexican Plateau into the South and Southeast. This will create good upper-level lapse rates and decrease the upper-level stability.

The cold front currently draped over the Midwest and Southeast will stall in the South and Southeast Wednesday, which will continually draw Gulf moisture into the Southeast over the next few days. A couple of weak systems are expected to form off of this boundary and move off to the northeast before the big storm makes its way in. There will be enough instability south of this boundary to initiate some severe weather Wednesday through Friday, but nothing significant is forecasted for this time period.

The low-level moisture that will be in place over the Southeast will provide a good source of instability for the main storm when it enters the region, with surface dewpoints forecasted to be in the lower 60s at the time of arrival of the storm. A Bermuda High will also be in place over the next few days, which will enhance the southerly flow off of the Gulf of Mexico.

Along with the impressive vort max in the 500mb level, The strength of the lower- and upper-level jets seem to be the major players for this storm. The main concern is with the forecasted strength of these jets. The GFS has the most robust forecast for this storm, with strong upper-level winds bringing in dry air aloft, and a strong southerly jet in the lower-levels, which will draw the moist Gulf air north and provide significant low-level wind speed shear. Weaker winds for either jet can quickly turn this disaster scenario into a more moderate event.

All that being said, I am going to side closely with the GFS, as it has done fairly well with forecasting the first few big troughs of the season, with surprisingly good accuracy in the 4-6 day range. Both the GFS and NAM are forecasting a generous area of 2000+ J/kg CAPE, with some areas possibly exceeding 3000 J/kg CAPE (with a bulls-eye over Louisiana). P-Wat values are forecasted to be in the 1.5"-1.75" range when the storm arrives in the Southeast. Impressive low-level speed and directional wind shear will lead to plenty hail and a good amount of severe wind and tornadic activity in the Southeast. A nice cap will also be present around the 850mb level, before getting eroded by diurnal heating and vertical motion, which rounds out the setup for a classic "loaded gun" environment.

Mon/Tues Outbreak Potential In The Great Plains

The dull weather continues in NY, so I thought I'd do a severe weather analysis for the upcoming storm:

The ingredients are beginning to mix a little better together as the Big Day approaches. Over the last few days, the models have put together a stronger westerly jet in the base of the upper-level trough, which will serve to bring in drier air off of the Rockies into the upper atmosphere. This will provide the Great Plains with about 500 J/kg more CAPE than was predicted a couple of days ago, putting the total forecasted CAPE in the 1000-1500 J/kg range for the more unstable areas. However, low-level moisture is still an issue, as forecasted surface dewpoints in the 50-60 range for most of the severe weather threat area decreases the great potential instability associated with this storm system.

Wind speed shear associated with a low-level southerly jet ahead of the system has improved as well, which not only increases the low-level instability, but also helps draw Gulf moisture further north. The great wind shear generated by this system will provide a favorable environment for supercell thunderstorms, with plenty of hail, strong winds and some tornadoes.

Storm formation will be hindered in the early part of Monday due to a nice cap in the mid-levels, with a lack of major instability near the surface. The big guns will likely show up in the late afternoon and early evening hours in the Great Plains as the cap breaks down, and push eastward in the overnight hours. The severe storms will likely continue working their way into the Midwest and Southeast Tuesday, causing a bit of mayhem in those regions as well, but they should not be as intense as Monday night's storms.

Some pretty forecast graphics for everyone to enjoy:

Cold Front Brings Rain, Slight Cool-down

A cold front will bring rain and a few rumbles of thunder into NY today through tomorrow morning. A brief period of cooler weather will follow the front into Friday...temps will be about 3-5 degrees below normal, with highs in the lower 40s for Albany. It will quickly warm back up to normal Saturday, and these normal temps (highs in the upper 40s for Albany, with some lower 50s thrown in) will continue through mid-week next week as another ridge takes a seat over the eastern portions of the US.

Yay...another week of boring weather for NY... *sigh*

In my map discussion during class yesterday, I mentioned the possibility of severe weather in the Great Plains for Monday/Tuesday next week due to the trough that will be digging into the southwest US over the weekend. The SPC is on board with this prediction, and issued the outlook today as confidence increased from yesterday.



At this point and time, the situation doesn't look too crazy. Just your typical severe weather pattern here... no real plans to turn into a huge outbreak. The big thing hurting this storm will be the lack up good upper-level lapse rates, which takes a big chunk out of the possible CAPE...otherwise this storm would be a lot scarier. To get this CAPE, the trough will have to dig a bit deeper to tap into the dry upper-level air that the Mexican Plateau has to offer. P-Wat values (provided by the Gulf) are pretty good, and the low-level shear (in the surface-3km range) looks impressive, so it definitely looks like we'll see a few good storms in the Great Plains (and perhaps pushing into the Southeast) Monday and Tuesday.

There is a SLIGHT possibility of getting some severe weather action from this system in NY as it pushes north and east. The main concern will be the strength of the ridge over us as the storm tries to move into NY. If the ridge is too strong, the storm will slide north and just give us some rain. Still, we're talking seven days out at this point, so hopefully a more favorable severe weather forecast will come into play later this week!

Spring Is Here...Warm, Parched

It appears as though winter has thrown in the towel for this season in NY. Warmer temps that are slightly above normal for this time will be the main weather factor through the beginning of next week. Aside from a chance of rain mid-week next week, we'll generally have fair weather as a high pressure dominates the region.

So get the last of the snow out of your yard, get the car cleaned and ready for Spring, and take a nice walk outside, as the next five days or so will be a great time for all of these activities! We have the outdoors back!

Severe Weather Potential In Western NY In The Morning

I've been watching this storm form since Saturday, but I haven't had the foresight to post about it here until now. A storm brewing in the Midwest will push northeast and enter NY during the morning hours tomorrow, 3/11. Up until now, it looked like NY wouldn't get into the severe action, as the occluded front was forecasted to pass through. However, recent models and forecasts indicate a brief period in the warm sector of the storm, which might give that little extra push needed to put some wind reports in NY.

SPC doesn't have western NY in the slight region, but they've done this before with cases where we've had multiple wind reports:


HPC's surface forecast for this storm continues to improve NY's chances of getting severe storms:


That brief warm period may have what it takes to give us our first multiple-report day of the year!

Snow To Wreak Havoc In Southeastern NY And The East Coast

A powerful storm is already creating quite a mess in parts of the southeastern US today, and will make its way up the east coast tonight, bringing heavy snow to NYC and southeastern NY.

All of the models are in pretty strong agreement as to the path and timing of this storm as it progresses north and east. The UKMET is the only major deviation, with a more easterly track, which would spell lighter snow accumulations for NY. Most of the other models are calling for a big QPF of 1-1.2" over NYC, which will equate to 8-14" of snow by Monday afternoon. Long Island is likely to see even more, with an estimated 12-18" of snow, since it will be in the more intense area of precipitation. This will make it a real headache for people to get anywhere in NYC and Long Island.

Here are the NAM and GFS 24-hour forecasts for 6-hour QPF (to fall just before the morning commute on Monday):



This storm is going to inundate much of the east coast, including the major metropolitan areas of Washington, D.C., NYC and Boston. It's the storm that's been long in the making, and many people were sure/hoping it was going to come. I have a feeling a lot of people are going to stay home on Monday.

Here's a little awesomeness from Atlanta, GA:
KATL 011752Z 32015KT 1/4SM R09R/3500V4500FT +TSSN FG OVC004CB 01/00 A2972 RMK AO2 TSB37 SLP067 OCNL LTGIC OHD TS OHD-ALQDS MOV SW 4/001 P0013 60060 T00060000 10067 20006 51013

Heavy thundersnow, with an inch of snow falling in that hour!

The snowfall amounts quickly drop off in NY as you move north and west. Albany is on the outer fringe of the larger snowfall area, and is expected to receive 2-5" from this storm. Parts of western and central NY will see some lake effect snow on the order of 1-3" as the storm moves off the coast. Lake effect accumulations are light because the winds will be northerly, which gives the air less time to gather moisture from Lake Ontario and Lake Erie.

The rest of the work week looks to be pretty fair in NY, with a chance of mixed precipitation on Friday and Saturday.

UPDATE:
Following the trends of the newer model runs, I'm upgrading the Albany snowfall total to 4-6". Isn't nowcasting fun?

Storm Enters NYS, Brings Warmth, Rain, Possible Flooding

As forecasted, the low pressure system will be moving through today, providing NYS with seasonably warm temperatures and rain. Some parts of western and central NY, along with some of the higher elevations, could receive a little snow at the tail end of the precipitation. A few rumbles of thunder may also be heard. Flooding remains a concern in rivers and streams, with the combined effects of melting snow and rainfall, especially in the Adirondacks and Catskills. Here is the flood watch issued today for these parts:

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ALBANY HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD WATCH FOR A PORTION OF EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK...INCLUDING
THE FOLLOWING AREAS...EASTERN ALBANY...EASTERN GREENE...
EASTERN SCHENECTADY...EASTERN ULSTER...HAMILTON...MONTGOMERY...
NORTHERN FULTON...NORTHERN HERKIMER...SCHOHARIE...SOUTHERN
FULTON...SOUTHERN HERKIMER...SOUTHERN SARATOGA...WESTERN
ALBANY...WESTERN GREENE...WESTERN SCHENECTADY AND WESTERN
ULSTER.

* THROUGH LATE TONIGHT

* MILD TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S
WILL RESULT IN MELTING SNOW ACROSS THE WATCH AREA. IN
ADDITION...A THIRD OF AN INCH TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF
RAIN IS EXPECTED TODAY INTO EARLY THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT WHICH WILL BRING COLDER TEMPERATURES BACK TO THE REGION
LATER TONIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT MAYBE
ENOUGH TO DISLODGE SOME OF THE ICE ON RIVERS AND STREAMS. THE
ICE CHUNKS WOULD THEN FLOAT DOWNSTREAM AND MAY FORM ICE JAMS
WHERE THE RIVERS TRANSPORT CAPACITY IS EXCEEDED. FAVORABLE
LOCATIONS FOR ICE JAMS INCLUDE...OBSTRUCTIONS IN THE CHANNEL
SUCH AS ISLANDS...LOCKS AND BRIDGE PIERS...CHANGES IN THE
CHANNEL SUCH AS BENDS...GORGES AND AREAS WHERE THE CHANNEL
NARROWS...AREAS WHERE THERE IS A CHANGE IN CHANNEL DEPTH...DEEP
WATER TO SHALLOW WATER...AND MERGERS OF RIVER CHANNELS.

* ICE JAMS CAN OCCUR SUDDENLY AND ARE HIGHLY UNSTABLE. WATER CAN
BACKUP QUICKLY BEHIND AN ICE JAM AND FLOOD AN AREA IN A MATTER
OF MINUTES. IN ADDITION...IF AN ICE JAM BREAKS A SUDDEN RELEASE
OF WATER CAN FLOOD AREAS DOWNSTREAM.

Also, looking at Buffalo's sounding from this morning, it looks like there is also the possibility of strong, gusty winds occurring in western and central NY along the cold front as it passes through. A band of moderate rain will likely accompany the wind.

The second storm, forecasted for the end of the weekend, appears to be tracking further and further off the coast. This means that most of NYS will not be getting any precipitation from it. Portions of southeastern NY might receive a light rain/snow mix Sunday morning as the system moves off the coast.

Cooler temperatures will take a hold in NYS after the passage of the second storm, as high pressure moves into the region. This high might get temporarily broken down in the middle of next week as a clipper system moves across the state, bringing light precipitation at best. The high will then rebuild after the clipper passes through.

NYS To Miss Another Big Storm Today

The models have been slowly pushing this storm further and further east. With the heavy precip just crossing over into eastern NYS, these small shifts mean big differences in certain parts of the state, such as my location in Albany.

Here are the 06z NAM and GFS runs from earlier today:



This correlates into about 2-4" of snow for the Albany area. I'm going with 1-3", since there is a possibility of some mixed precip during the storm if the surface warms up enough. Not a bad event, but it's peanuts compared to parts of northern New England, Maine in particular. Some areas are expected to get 12-18" of snow by the end of the storm tomorrow night, with localized areas of 18-24". Yeah...they can have that for all I care.

And of course there's going to be lake effect for those who live further west, but that's just a given.

NYS Remains Quiet... Southeast Gets Tornado Outbreak

Besides an inch of snow (which melted already) and some rain, the Wednesday/Thursday event was... uneventful for most of NYS. The southeastern states saw a tornado outbreak, recording the second EF4 of the season, along with the first EF3 and many smaller tornadoes.



The latest GFS runs are throwing in a Nor'easter into the New England states this Sunday, which will scrape the eastern parts of NYS. The NAM run has the main precip core a bit further east. The discrepancy is the secondary low forecasted to form just off the coast, which the GFS has forming and deepening sooner than the NAM. The NAM is in closer agreement with the European model than the GFS is, so I'm banking on the storm staying further east. Good news for us winter haters!

Storm To Bring Wintry Mix Into NYS Tomorrow

A storm that is gathering strength in the Central Plains states today, and will make its way northeast into NYS Wednesday afternoon and evening. The storm will begin as snow, and will likely transition over to rain in the valley regions during the overnight hours. Albany will be getting a nice southerly flow, which will help hinder the accumulation of snow. 1-3 inches of snow is expected to fall before the transition, which will make for slushy road conditions for the Thursday morning commute.

Periods of a rain/snow mix are also expected, but luckily sleet and freezing rain won't be a factor in this storm. The rain/snow showers are expected to taper off by Thursday afternoon, with scattered flurries Thursday evening and Friday. We will catch a short break before another system moves into the region, which will bring some small additional snow accumulations during the weekend, with 0 to 3 inches of snow falling across the state.

Tomorrow looks like the start of another dynamic pattern, in which NYS will get a storm every 2-3 days for at least the next couple of weeks. The storms over a week out from now appear to be mostly rain, but these storms are too far out to make any deterministic forecasts.