Research On Marcellus And Utica Tornadoes Complete

I've finished my research for the 29 July 2006 tornadoes of Marcellus and Utica, NY. I will not post my results quite yet, as I will probably need to clean it up a bit and maybe try to get it published.

At any rate, here's the original abstract:

On 29 July 2006, a line of storms produced two F0 tornadoes in Marcellus and Utica, NY at approximately 2000Z and 1930Z, respectively. To investigate the cause of these tornadoes, an analysis of the synoptic, mesoscale and air column data was performed. The synoptic analysis of the surface and upper-levels indicates forcing for ascent along a surface cold front, which was enhanced by a weak 300 hPa jet streak aloft. Air column data suggests thermodynamic forcing for ascent in the mid- and upper-levels from Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE). Forcing for ascent is also indicated by the veering wind profile and wind speeds increasing with height throughout most of the troposphere. The analysis of the mesoscale data reveals the true culprit behind the tornadogenesis that occurred over Marcellus and Utica.

My Research From the 2009 NESC

I've finally gotten around to uploading a .pdf of my 2009 NESC presentation. The link will likely change after my web space from SUNY Albany is taken away, but I will put it up on there for now. I should really find a more permanent place to put that stuff...

The research has a synoptic scale analysis, as well as a closer look into the mesoscale features of the case studies. This is mostly preliminary research, and more cases could be added in the future. I will probably not continue this research, as I have seen others working on similar situations involving elevated convection, such as Nolan Atkins and Todd Lanouette, who, are working on bow echo storms. They've already come up with some great conclusions about elevated convection that further research on my part would only back up their findings, and not provide a significant contribution to the scientific community.

A Comparison of Cold Season Non-severe Wind Storms and Severe Wind Outbreaks in New York State

NOTE: The "which is which?" slides are animations that do not work on the PDF, so you may disregard those two slides. They merely show the similarity between the radar signatures of surface and elevated convection.

Researching The 2006 Marcellus, NY Tornado

Not much in the way of exciting weather is going on this week. Hopefully we'll see a more favorable environment for storms in the Northeast somewhere around the end of April.

For one of my classes, I have decided to do a case study of the F0 tornado that struck my hometown of Marcellus, NY back in 2006. I will post the paper here when it is done.

For those of you wondering why I haven't put up my research from earlier this year up, it is because I forgot to. I'll put a research tab on the left-hand link area and throw the powerpoint and other stuff in there.

It looks like I may be going to NCSU in the fall, so I will probably not have any more NY pictures to post after the move. However, I will keep updating this site and adding on to it, and I will probably also start another blog that is more general and caters to me having to move around a bit over the next several years. This blog has been going for about a year now (1 year anniversary is April 19th, yay us!), and I have learned a lot from doing it. I hope that people other than myself have found this site to be useful in one way or another.

Upcoming Project... Making Databases

This Spring and Summer I plan on making several databases concerning severe weather in NY...from SPC storm reports to the actual warnings to pictures to maps and other data. I'm going to start with the most recent stuff and work my way back. I'll also post links to the blog for the dates where possible. This ought to be interesting...

Could A Regime Change End The Cold Spell? ...And Research

Model runs are consistently showing the breakdown of a long-standing ridge over the western U.S. and eastern Pacific, which means that temps on the eastern half on the nation will warm up as the trough breaks down! Seasonal to above-average temps are expected in the coming days, which is good news for the snow haters out there (including myself).

As part of my own new regime, I plan on updating this site at least twice a week from now on. Perhaps it's time to get this thing really going.

As for my research, I have officially submitted it to the 34th Annual Northeastern Storm Conference. Below is the title and abstract for my paper. It is similar to the research I did last fall, except I've replaced the warm cases with control cases, which will strengthen the overall paper. I should be presenting this Saturday morning on March 7.


TITLE:

A Comparison Of Cold Season Non-severe Wind Storms
And Severe Wind Outbreaks In New York State


ABSTRACT:

This paper examines synoptic features associated with severe wind outbreaks in New York State (NY), and how they differ from similar outbreaks that produce strong, but mainly non-severe, winds. The differences between these events can be very subtle, but make a large impact as to whether or not the storms reach the 50 knot threshold needed to be considered severe. Being able to distinguish better between non-severe and severe wind events could help improve the accuracy and range of severe wind warnings in NY.

To determine synoptic features common to the severe wind outbreaks, three severe wind cases and three non-severe wind cases between 1 November and 21 March of the years 2005-2008 were analyzed to determine common synoptic-scale features using conventional upper air and surface data, as well as satellite and sounding data. A particular focus of the case studies was on the forcing for ascent, provided by vertical circulations associated with strong polar and subtropical jets. The sounding data also contained characteristic signatures, which help distinguish between non-severe winds and severe wind outbreaks. These common features could be used to potentially forecast future severe wind outbreaks in NY and adjacent areas.

Research Project On Severe Weather In NYS

I'm doing research for one of my classes, and I chose to look at severe weather outbreaks in NYS that involves numerous wind damage reports. I have found three "cold" and three "warm" cases to study and compare. Results, as well as the full article, will be posted here. The paper is due in early November, and the presentation will be done by early December.

I've revamped my old site to make it more suitable for my collegiate needs. The linked page contains my research stuff:
http://www.albany.edu/~me381243/atm400research.html