June Was A Snoozefest... Will It Get Better?

It has been awhile since I posted... mainly due to working two jobs and figuring out the next step in my life... but who cares, time for some weather!

It certainly took awhile for June to get crankin' with the severe weather in NY. The first day was a clustered hail event from June 9th:

06/09/09:



It took another week to get severe weather to strike NY. Once again, it was a hailer, and it struck a good portion of the eastern half of the state. The lack of wind reports in June was mostly caused by having weak shear, which couldn't organize severe storms into a line. Albany got some nice hail this day, but of course I was out of town:

06/15/09:



And that's all we saw for the first 24 days of June.

Severe weather started to return to a regular summer schedule once the last week of June hit. A low pressure system came through with some decent forcing to go along with daytime heating, giving us two exciting days of severe weather:

06/25/09:


06/26/09:



Daytime heating and a weak cut-off gave us a couple of bouts of severe weather a week later, with reports coming in from eastern NY on June 30th and July 1st:

06/30/09:


07/01/09:



Up to this point, all of the storms in June that gave us severe weather were either cut-offs, or become cut-offs. A similar situation came up on July 7th, but moved out of the northeast a bit quicker than the previous storms:

07/07/09:



It looks like this trough which has been keeping us cool this summer will stick around for a bit longer. I'm hoping that it moves out before I move to NC in a month, but it does not look promising at this time.

Tomorrow is looking really good for severe weather for NY, especially western and central portions of the state. I believe the SPC has underestimated the eastward extent of the severe weather (which I have been saying for a couple of days now), and that eastern NY will get a good showing from this low pressure system as it slides into the region in the late afternoon and evening hours.

New York State Goes Green on 7 July 2009

Tuesday afternoon/night was an active one meteorologically speaking. Around 2:30PM (when I was getting ready to end my shift at work) intense rain came through the area. Flash Flood Warnings and Severe Thunderstorm Watches covered my area. I even saw very small hail (not large enough though to warrant snapping a cell phone picture). Lightning and thunder also made a very welcome visit to the area.

The appended images show the Storm Prediction Center's forecast and verification (storm reports) for the period around 7 July 2009.











Verification:




The attached base reflectivity images for 0300 - O500 UTC 8 July 2009 show very nice severe cells moving southeastward from New Jersey into New York Metro area.







When I came to work at KTEB yesterday morning, Chris and I immediately began discussing the situation to see if the damage reported was tornadic or straight-line wind related. Speaking with Dan (who was at the other office) we were discussing how it must have been straight-line wind, because the SRM and model soundings were crap.

Here is the Public Information Statement from NOAA NWS OKX:

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&product=PNS&issuedby=OKX

Well I should get back to work...and by that I mean looking at METARs and GFS loops until we get a phone call or have to record a radio forecast.

NYC Severe Weather Threat for 26 June 2009

Well after what seems like an eternal wait, New York City is in the middle of a nice big SLGT by the SPC. The beginning of this week was plagued by a pesky upper-level cut-off low parked near Cape Cod, bringing rain showers and below-climo temps to our region. Finally, we have a nice set up for hot summer days and good convection.

The SPC Day 2 outlook right now has NYC under a SLGT, with a 15% categorical outlook. A series of shortwave troughs are expected to help amplify the weak zonal pattern we've had for weeks. SBCAPE should build throughout the day to over 3000 J/kg after 1800 UTC.



This is the NAM's forecast precipitation/pressure/isotherms for 00UTC 27 June 2009. Other more high-resolution models show much more precip, and PWATs are progged to be at least 1.5 inches. Here is the SPC forecast:





Upper level jet dynamics are decent, with a 60-kt jet streak at 250-hPa with NYC being placed in the right entrance region. Strong cyclonic vorticity advection at 500-hPa is present and the GFS is most aggressive with the negative tilting of the trough. Mixing rations of 12+ g/kg are present, so our atmosphere will be nice and moist.

More updates will follow as I try to stay awake.

Severe Weather Just Around The Corner

The next couple of days are looking somewhat favorable for severe weather in NY. At the moment, it does not look like there will be much. Most of the action will depend on the placement of the fronts, which favors western and southern portions of NY at this time. Further north, expect showers and thunderstorms as well, but these storms will be elevated. Strong winds and small hail will be possible with these storms. The GFS has more favorable severe weather conditions further north than the NAM does, but the GFS is bringing the line further and further south as we approach game time.

At any rate, some of NY could get a nice light show from these storms. My camera will be ready.

Also, sorry for only 1 update again this week... been having problems with my computer (I have completely reformatted and reinstalled stuff over the weekend).

Cold... Then Seasonal... Boomers Are But A Distant Memory

This was probably one of the worst Mays (with the lack of severe weather) that NY has seen in a long time. The only shot I've gotten is a part of a double rainbow (which I may post later). This next week isn't looking that good for storms, except for a slight chance in western NY (where all of the storms seem to be happening this year).

There is a chance for thunderstorms across NY this Wednesday, but that's being highly optimistic at this point and time. The models have the cold front of the system coming through NY in the overnight through early afternoon hours. If that frontal passage comes through just a few hours later than what is currently anticipated, we might have a chance at some severe weather.

At least we're not the only ones without severe weather. The poor people with Vortex2 are missing out big time because of this unfavorable weather pattern. There hasn't even been a moderate risk area anywhere in the U.S. since the 15th.

In the meantime, I'll be catching up on my sleep.

Boomers On The Way... Past Reports For Now

As NY prepares for another round of thunderstorms for the second half of the week, we need to take a look back at last weekend's severe weather reports...

The 23rd provided NY with a few severe reports from a cluster of cells in southern NY. General thunderstorms impacted a good portion of NY that day:

05/23/09:


The next day was a bit more active, with a cluster of reports in southern NY and southern New England. What was interesting was the SPC never issued a watch for southern New England, which surprised me and many others:


05/24/09:

Possible End To Snoozefest 2009

After almost a full week of catching up on its sleep, severe weather may be back in NY tomorrow.

It has definitely been a unique Spring week...Nothing happening across most of the country, except in the Southeast, where parts of Florida have received over two FEET of rain over the past several days, due to the on-again off-again 90L, which is trying to reorganize itself before it pushes up through the middle of the country.

Here's the link to some extraordinary pictures taken at the Daytona International Speedway: Daytona flood pictures

Cloudcover will be an issue in NY again tomorrow as far as severe weather is concerned. With sufficient daytime heating, the atmosphere could destabilize enough for some hail and strong (but not severe) winds. These storms will likely be concentrated to central and southern NY, with some lingering cells edging their way into eastern NY late in the day.