Amazing Sounding: Corpus Christi

Get a napkin ready to wipe the drool off of your face after you see these soundings:





You don't see stuff like this very often!

Researching The 2006 Marcellus, NY Tornado

Not much in the way of exciting weather is going on this week. Hopefully we'll see a more favorable environment for storms in the Northeast somewhere around the end of April.

For one of my classes, I have decided to do a case study of the F0 tornado that struck my hometown of Marcellus, NY back in 2006. I will post the paper here when it is done.

For those of you wondering why I haven't put up my research from earlier this year up, it is because I forgot to. I'll put a research tab on the left-hand link area and throw the powerpoint and other stuff in there.

It looks like I may be going to NCSU in the fall, so I will probably not have any more NY pictures to post after the move. However, I will keep updating this site and adding on to it, and I will probably also start another blog that is more general and caters to me having to move around a bit over the next several years. This blog has been going for about a year now (1 year anniversary is April 19th, yay us!), and I have learned a lot from doing it. I hope that people other than myself have found this site to be useful in one way or another.

Brushfire Leads To 6-Alarm Blaze On Staten Island

Around 1:00pm local time, a brush fire broke out on Staten Island. It has quickly grown into a 6-Alarm fire, and is threatening homes and infrastructure. One home is completely engulfed in fire, and other houses are at risk of becoming ablaze as strong winds push the smoke and ash southeastward.

Here is a radar from earlier today, with the smoke plume clearly visible to the southeast of Staten Island:


Links with early reports on the fire:
http://www.silive.com/news/index.ssf/2009/04/brush_fire_on_staten_island_ca.html
http://www.ny1.com/content/top_stories/97273/crews-battle-massive-brush-fire-on-staten-island/Default.aspx

More news on the brush fire as it develops. Fellow blogger Mark McIntyre is within three-minute walking distance from his house to the intense fires, and he will have some eyewitness information for us soon.

Dry Northeast Starting To See Drought Conditions Arise

Since the start of the year, NY and the Northeast has seen below-average precipitation amounts, and it's starting to show. Below average monthly precipitation totals have been recorded throughout most of NY since January, and the next week looks like it will only add to the deficit, as a series of high pressure systems keep rain out of the Northeast.



While drought conditions are still relatively minor, a couple more months of prolonged dry weather could see these conditions rapidly deteriorate, which does not bode well for farmers as planting season for many crops is just around the corner.

To keep up with the drought conditions in the Northeast, you can visit the following link:
http://www.drought.unl.edu/dm/DM_northeast.htm

Lull In NY Weather, So Here's A Couple Weather Links!

Since it looks like the weather in NY will be pretty boring for awhile, here's a couple of weather links to keep you on the up-and-up on forecasting!

1. METAR data (defaulted to KALB for 60 hours) - Courtesy of UCAR
What it is: This site shows us the METAR weather code for virtually any station. This link is so special because it was really hard for me to find.
Why it's awesome: Take a good look at the URL. This link is for KALB, but you can enter any four-letter station ID you wish. Also note the "hoursStr=past+60+hours" section. The 60 can be made to any 12-hour interval you desire, for up to a month out into the past (~756 hours max)! This is a very nice feature, as you can look up what kind of weather a station has been having for the last month, which is useful to those who participate in forecasting contests like myself.

2. TwisterData.com - Courtesy of TornadoVideos.net
What it is: A high-res look at the nation from the GFS and NAM forecast models. This site is pretty expansive in its features, allowing you to look at dozens of different model outputs in an easy-to-navigate manner.
Why it's awesome: Easy to use, awesome features, and it's still in its infancy! Expect to see new features added to this site to make it even more user friendly in the near future, along with more model data (see the site for specific details). It also has a four-day archive of model outputs, so you can compare 16 different NAM/GFS runs if you want to! This site makes it really easy to look at severe weather components, which saves me a bunch of time since I don't have to look at several different sites to get my wind, moisture, and sounding data anymore.

Take them, cherish them, and get to know them! These two links provide me with a lot of information that I use on a regular basis, and I hope you will find them as useful as I do!

Another Chance For Elevated Convection For Monday. Also, Snow...

As yet another low pressure system pushes into the Northeast, NY is faced with the possibility of thunderstorms associated with elevated convection. The thunderstorms are expected to pop up along an occluded front Monday morning, and push northeast from western NY to eastern NY throughout the mid-morning and afternoon hours.

The GFS is being a lot more generous than the NAM with elevated CAPE in NY, with values of over 800 J/kg over Albany at around 2pm EDT. NAM is suggesting more moist mid- and upper-levels, with elevated CAPE values of less than 100 J/kg. P-Wat values of about one inch will help fuel the storms as they push through NY.

The main discrepancy between the models is the overall strength of the mid- and upper-level jets over NY. The GFS is forecasting stronger mid- and upper-level winds, which would advect steeper lapse rates into these levels and provide the larger elevated CAPE values. I tend to go with a mean value over Albany, since the GFS tends to overestimate CAPE values, and the NAM slightly underestimates it. Realistically, I would expect Albany to hit elevated CAPE values of 200-300 J/kg...enough to trigger some boomers!

This line of possible thunderstorms will also bring heavy rain, with a large portion of NY progged to receive over half an inch of precipitation. Lesser values are forecasted for areas not fully affected by this line of storms.

Following the passage of the occluded front, snow is expected throughout most of NY. Temps will reach below freezing at times in much of the western half of NY, which could see some snow accumulations. Areas affected by lake effect could see very generous snowfall totals for this time of the year, with 3-6"+ expected in the stronger lake-effect bands. In the eastern half of NY, temps will be a bit warmer, so valley areas could see some snow showers mixed with rain, but little to no accumulation. Elevations above 1200' in eastern NY can expect to see some snow accumulation from the trailing end of this storm.

Thunderstorms in ALB tomorrow?

So after the nice complex of storms that affected the Southeast and Gulf Coast states today, us weather nerds up here at UAlbany are looking forward to the possibility of more thunderstorms tomorrow. The 990-hPa low that is currently over AR/TN will make its way northeastward towards us, eventually taking a track west of the Capital Region. Appended is the SPC's current Day 2 outlook, followed by total precipitation forecast ending 0000Z 4 April 2009.