NYS Remains Quiet... Southeast Gets Tornado Outbreak

Besides an inch of snow (which melted already) and some rain, the Wednesday/Thursday event was... uneventful for most of NYS. The southeastern states saw a tornado outbreak, recording the second EF4 of the season, along with the first EF3 and many smaller tornadoes.



The latest GFS runs are throwing in a Nor'easter into the New England states this Sunday, which will scrape the eastern parts of NYS. The NAM run has the main precip core a bit further east. The discrepancy is the secondary low forecasted to form just off the coast, which the GFS has forming and deepening sooner than the NAM. The NAM is in closer agreement with the European model than the GFS is, so I'm banking on the storm staying further east. Good news for us winter haters!

Storm To Bring Wintry Mix Into NYS Tomorrow

A storm that is gathering strength in the Central Plains states today, and will make its way northeast into NYS Wednesday afternoon and evening. The storm will begin as snow, and will likely transition over to rain in the valley regions during the overnight hours. Albany will be getting a nice southerly flow, which will help hinder the accumulation of snow. 1-3 inches of snow is expected to fall before the transition, which will make for slushy road conditions for the Thursday morning commute.

Periods of a rain/snow mix are also expected, but luckily sleet and freezing rain won't be a factor in this storm. The rain/snow showers are expected to taper off by Thursday afternoon, with scattered flurries Thursday evening and Friday. We will catch a short break before another system moves into the region, which will bring some small additional snow accumulations during the weekend, with 0 to 3 inches of snow falling across the state.

Tomorrow looks like the start of another dynamic pattern, in which NYS will get a storm every 2-3 days for at least the next couple of weeks. The storms over a week out from now appear to be mostly rain, but these storms are too far out to make any deterministic forecasts.

Update On Severe Weather In The South, And NYS Weather

NYS missed out on severe storms last night, with the exception of one lone wind report, as the main line that produced well over 300 wind reports in the Southeast, Midwest and Mid-Atlantic states petered-out before entering NYS:

2/11/09


My prediction for a tornado outbreak on the 10th was confirmed by additional reports that came in yesterday after storm damage was analyzed in the southern Great Plains:



It just squeaked in as an outbreak, with the minimum of six tornado reports, but was an outbreak nonetheless. The wikipedia article on this event is a little contradictory, stating that there were seven tornadoes reported. Included is an EF4 wedge tornado, with unfortunately cut through the town of Lone Grove, Oklahoma, which has thus far killed at least 9 people, with about 50 others injured. A local news station, KOCO, has video footage of an EF2 tornado taken from their news helicopter. The severe potential is minimal through the rest of the week, which is good news for those involved in the cleanup from these storms.

As this storm moves off the coast, NYS is left with near-normal temps, with lows in the teens and highs in the low to mid 30s. Today will remain windy, with scattered rain and snow showers as temps fall throughout the day. Expect drier conditions to dominate our weather from tomorrow until around mid-week next week. The latest model runs indicate a mixed-precip nor'easter, which could greatly affect NYS weather around Wednesday. I will keep an eye on this system, and report on it later this week as I get a better look as to how this storm will track.

UPDATE:
As reports and assessments continue to come into the NWS, the tornado count for February 10-11 is up to 11, with two more tornadoes occurring the next day.

Also updated to include the new wind report that popped up.

National Severe Thunderstorm Season About To Get Underway

Severe weather is popping up in the forecasts! It's not up here in NYS yet, but we might see a little bit in the upcoming week.

For the short term, there is a slight risk of severe storms just east of the Rockies, mostly in western Texas. This storm has a VERY SLIGHT risk of producing tornadoes, but we'll likely just see some wind and hail reports from this system.

Day 1 Outlook (tornado: 2%, hail: 15%, wind: 15%):


What we're really watching is the storm that forms in the wake of this one, which is forecast to have a much higher potential of producing severe storms and tornadoes than the one that is currently forming. Day 3 brings a much higher risk of supercell thunderstorms and tornadoes, and it looks like this second system could produce our first tornado outbreak of the season. If not, then it certainly has the capacity to produce a lot of wind and hail reports. CAPE is going to be the make-or-break factor for the chance of tornadoes, which, at this point, is forecasted to max out around 500-700 J/kg, whereas environments more favorable to tornadoes have at least twice as much CAPE. If this storm can gather enough energy, it will become powerful indeed.

Day 3 Outlook (overall chance of severe weather):


This stronger storm is forcasted to move northeast from the Great Plains, and enter NYS early Thursday morning. However, this is still a reasonable amount of uncertainty with this storm as to where it will track. The "doomsday scenario" for NYS includes a brief period in the warm sector of this storm, which could give us the potential for severe weather before the storm moves out. The more likely scenario is that NYS just gets a few showers, with brief periods of moderate rain.

But one can always dream...

Could A Regime Change End The Cold Spell? ...And Research

Model runs are consistently showing the breakdown of a long-standing ridge over the western U.S. and eastern Pacific, which means that temps on the eastern half on the nation will warm up as the trough breaks down! Seasonal to above-average temps are expected in the coming days, which is good news for the snow haters out there (including myself).

As part of my own new regime, I plan on updating this site at least twice a week from now on. Perhaps it's time to get this thing really going.

As for my research, I have officially submitted it to the 34th Annual Northeastern Storm Conference. Below is the title and abstract for my paper. It is similar to the research I did last fall, except I've replaced the warm cases with control cases, which will strengthen the overall paper. I should be presenting this Saturday morning on March 7.


TITLE:

A Comparison Of Cold Season Non-severe Wind Storms
And Severe Wind Outbreaks In New York State


ABSTRACT:

This paper examines synoptic features associated with severe wind outbreaks in New York State (NY), and how they differ from similar outbreaks that produce strong, but mainly non-severe, winds. The differences between these events can be very subtle, but make a large impact as to whether or not the storms reach the 50 knot threshold needed to be considered severe. Being able to distinguish better between non-severe and severe wind events could help improve the accuracy and range of severe wind warnings in NY.

To determine synoptic features common to the severe wind outbreaks, three severe wind cases and three non-severe wind cases between 1 November and 21 March of the years 2005-2008 were analyzed to determine common synoptic-scale features using conventional upper air and surface data, as well as satellite and sounding data. A particular focus of the case studies was on the forcing for ascent, provided by vertical circulations associated with strong polar and subtropical jets. The sounding data also contained characteristic signatures, which help distinguish between non-severe winds and severe wind outbreaks. These common features could be used to potentially forecast future severe wind outbreaks in NY and adjacent areas.

Miserable Weather Continues In NYS

A storm passed through yesterday, bringing mixed precipitation throughout the state. Albany got what could best be described as "a slushy mess" as a half-inch water equivalent fell from the sky.

Another storm, which looks like it will be mostly snow, will make its way over the state this weekend. It seems like we've gotten ourselves into quite a rut of a weather pattern: Consistently cold, with periods of strong winds and winter storms. I can't wait until we get some nice weather!

Storm Peters Out... Following Storm Packs Some Snow

The storm on the 28th had the typical line just ahead of the cold front, but it was not powerful enough to produce wind reports in NYS. The upper level jets looked pretty weak, which dampened the upward motion needed to sustain the severe storms in NYS.

Yesterday, another snow storm put another 7-8 inches of the white stuff on the ground. This puts the NWS snowfall total at 28.0 inches, which is well on its way to reaching Albany's average of about 65 inches per year.

The snow storm also brought gusty winds and cold temperatures...with Albany International reaching a bone-chilling 3F. Winds were about 15-20 mph, with gusts to 25 mph, which made it feel -20F to -25F outside during the worst of it.

Brrrrrr!