Severe Weather Blog For New York State

AmericanWx Forums temporarily down

2010-11-15T09:27:00.001-05:00

American Weather Forums is down for now, but it should be operational again within the next 48 hours.

More details here: http://madusweather.com/?p=409

Eastern U.S. Weather Forums is down...

2010-11-12T16:19:00.000-05:00

Brought this blog out of dead-ness for one last post since someone searching for Eastern US Weather might stumble upon this site in a google search.

For more information and links to the new forum, information can be found here:

http://madusweather.com/?p=385

I Guess I'm Done

2009-10-04T14:44:00.002-04:00

I thought I would have the time to keep updating this site while in graduate school, but I don't, so I'm done here. It was fun.

- Mark Ellinwood

Lack Of Updates... For Good Reason

2009-08-05T08:28:00.002-04:00

Between work and my personal life, I have often been too tired to do things. Unfortunately, that means this site has gone onto the back burner for awhile. I am in day 3 of 7 of 8- or 9-hour work days, and then I have to pack for my move to Raleigh, NC, get accustomed to the school, and find a job and a roommate. Needless to say, all of these things cause get stress and other fun emotions and feelings that make it difficult for me to get the motivation to update the site.

- The Management

June Was A Snoozefest... Will It Get Better?

2009-07-10T19:25:00.003-04:00

It has been awhile since I posted... mainly due to working two jobs and figuring out the next step in my life... but who cares, time for some weather!

It certainly took awhile for June to get crankin' with the severe weather in NY. The first day was a clustered hail event from June 9th:

06/09/09:

It took another week to get severe weather to strike NY. Once again, it was a hailer, and it struck a good portion of the eastern half of the state. The lack of wind reports in June was mostly caused by having weak shear, which couldn't organize severe storms into a line. Albany got some nice hail this day, but of course I was out of town:

06/15/09:

And that's all we saw for the first 24 days of June.

Severe weather started to return to a regular summer schedule once the last week of June hit. A low pressure system came through with some decent forcing to go along with daytime heating, giving us two exciting days of severe weather:

06/25/09:

06/26/09:

Daytime heating and a weak cut-off gave us a couple of bouts of severe weather a week later, with reports coming in from eastern NY on June 30th and July 1st:

06/30/09:

07/01/09:

Up to this point, all of the storms in June that gave us severe weather were either cut-offs, or become cut-offs. A similar situation came up on July 7th, but moved out of the northeast a bit quicker than the previous storms:

07/07/09:

It looks like this trough which has been keeping us cool this summer will stick around for a bit longer. I'm hoping that it moves out before I move to NC in a month, but it does not look promising at this time.

Tomorrow is looking really good for severe weather for NY, especially western and central portions of the state. I believe the SPC has underestimated the eastward extent of the severe weather (which I have been saying for a couple of days now), and that eastern NY will get a good showing from this low pressure system as it slides into the region in the late afternoon and evening hours.

New York State Goes Green on 7 July 2009

2009-07-09T07:36:00.005-04:00

Tuesday afternoon/night was an active one meteorologically speaking. Around 2:30PM (when I was getting ready to end my shift at work) intense rain came through the area. Flash Flood Warnings and Severe Thunderstorm Watches covered my area. I even saw very small hail (not large enough though to warrant snapping a cell phone picture). Lightning and thunder also made a very welcome visit to the area.

The appended images show the Storm Prediction Center's forecast and verification (storm reports) for the period around 7 July 2009.

Verification:

The attached base reflectivity images for 0300 - O500 UTC 8 July 2009 show very nice severe cells moving southeastward from New Jersey into New York Metro area.

When I came to work at KTEB yesterday morning, Chris and I immediately began discussing the situation to see if the damage reported was tornadic or straight-line wind related. Speaking with Dan (who was at the other office) we were discussing how it must have been straight-line wind, because the SRM and model soundings were crap.

Here is the Public Information Statement from NOAA NWS OKX:

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&product=PNS&issuedby=OKX

Well I should get back to work...and by that I mean looking at METARs and GFS loops until we get a phone call or have to record a radio forecast.

NYC Severe Weather Threat for 26 June 2009

2009-06-25T19:50:00.002-04:00

Well after what seems like an eternal wait, New York City is in the middle of a nice big SLGT by the SPC. The beginning of this week was plagued by a pesky upper-level cut-off low parked near Cape Cod, bringing rain showers and below-climo temps to our region. Finally, we have a nice set up for hot summer days and good convection.

The SPC Day 2 outlook right now has NYC under a SLGT, with a 15% categorical outlook. A series of shortwave troughs are expected to help amplify the weak zonal pattern we've had for weeks. SBCAPE should build throughout the day to over 3000 J/kg after 1800 UTC.

This is the NAM's forecast precipitation/pressure/isotherms for 00UTC 27 June 2009. Other more high-resolution models show much more precip, and PWATs are progged to be at least 1.5 inches. Here is the SPC forecast:

Upper level jet dynamics are decent, with a 60-kt jet streak at 250-hPa with NYC being placed in the right entrance region. Strong cyclonic vorticity advection at 500-hPa is present and the GFS is most aggressive with the negative tilting of the trough. Mixing rations of 12+ g/kg are present, so our atmosphere will be nice and moist.

More updates will follow as I try to stay awake.

Severe Weather Just Around The Corner

2009-06-07T17:32:00.003-04:00

The next couple of days are looking somewhat favorable for severe weather in NY. At the moment, it does not look like there will be much. Most of the action will depend on the placement of the fronts, which favors western and southern portions of NY at this time. Further north, expect showers and thunderstorms as well, but these storms will be elevated. Strong winds and small hail will be possible with these storms. The GFS has more favorable severe weather conditions further north than the NAM does, but the GFS is bringing the line further and further south as we approach game time.

At any rate, some of NY could get a nice light show from these storms. My camera will be ready.

Also, sorry for only 1 update again this week... been having problems with my computer (I have completely reformatted and reinstalled stuff over the weekend).

Cold... Then Seasonal... Boomers Are But A Distant Memory

2009-05-31T18:23:00.003-04:00

This was probably one of the worst Mays (with the lack of severe weather) that NY has seen in a long time. The only shot I've gotten is a part of a double rainbow (which I may post later). This next week isn't looking that good for storms, except for a slight chance in western NY (where all of the storms seem to be happening this year).

There is a chance for thunderstorms across NY this Wednesday, but that's being highly optimistic at this point and time. The models have the cold front of the system coming through NY in the overnight through early afternoon hours. If that frontal passage comes through just a few hours later than what is currently anticipated, we might have a chance at some severe weather.

At least we're not the only ones without severe weather. The poor people with Vortex2 are missing out big time because of this unfavorable weather pattern. There hasn't even been a moderate risk area anywhere in the U.S. since the 15th.

In the meantime, I'll be catching up on my sleep.

Boomers On The Way... Past Reports For Now

2009-05-27T21:38:00.003-04:00

As NY prepares for another round of thunderstorms for the second half of the week, we need to take a look back at last weekend's severe weather reports...

The 23rd provided NY with a few severe reports from a cluster of cells in southern NY. General thunderstorms impacted a good portion of NY that day:

05/23/09:

The next day was a bit more active, with a cluster of reports in southern NY and southern New England. What was interesting was the SPC never issued a watch for southern New England, which surprised me and many others:

05/24/09:

Possible End To Snoozefest 2009

2009-05-22T22:34:00.003-04:00

After almost a full week of catching up on its sleep, severe weather may be back in NY tomorrow.

It has definitely been a unique Spring week...Nothing happening across most of the country, except in the Southeast, where parts of Florida have received over two FEET of rain over the past several days, due to the on-again off-again 90L, which is trying to reorganize itself before it pushes up through the middle of the country.

Here's the link to some extraordinary pictures taken at the Daytona International Speedway: Daytona flood pictures

Cloudcover will be an issue in NY again tomorrow as far as severe weather is concerned. With sufficient daytime heating, the atmosphere could destabilize enough for some hail and strong (but not severe) winds. These storms will likely be concentrated to central and southern NY, with some lingering cells edging their way into eastern NY late in the day.

Two Tornadoes Now Confirmed From Yesterday's Storms

2009-05-17T21:35:00.003-04:00

A Public Information Statement from the NWS:

... Tornadoes confirmed in Cortland and Madison counties...

Location... Georgetown... Madison County NY
date... may 16th 2009
estimated time... 434 to 447 PM
maximum ef-scale rating... EF2
estimated maximum wind speed... 100 to 120 mph
maximum path width... 150 yards
path length... 6.5 miles
beginning lat/Lon... 42.75n / 75.77w
ending lat/Lon... 42.77n / 75.67w
*injuries... 1

*note these numbers could change after issuance of this product.

... Summary...
most of the damage along the path was to trees. Significant damage
occurred approximately 1 mile south of the Village of Georgetown. A
large barn was destroyed... a roof was torn off a house and several
outbuildings and sheds were destroyed. Electrical poles were
snapped. This location is where the injury occurred. A second farm
on Upham Road was hit... destroying a large barn... silo and a couple
sheds. Some livestock was lost at this location. A Farmstead near
Niles Road also received damage to a silo... and damage to the home
roof and siding.

... Tornado confirmed in Cuyler New York...

Location... Cuyler... Cortland County NY
date... may 16th 2009
estimated time... 424 PM
maximum ef-scale rating... EF0
estimated maximum wind speed... 70 to 80 mph
maximum path width... 75 yards
path length... 0.4 miles
beginning/ending lat/Lon... 42.72n / 75.90w

*note these numbers could change after issuance of this product.

... Summary...
some trees uprooted and two small sheds destroyed. Greater damage
occurred to the west at a couple of farms and several residences
between Truxton and Cuyler which was determined to be caused
by straight line winds.

----------
UPDATE

Some articles:
wsyr9.com ABC Central NY
wktv.com News Channel 2 Utica

Tornado In Tioga County During Yesterday's Severe Weather

2009-05-17T20:00:00.002-04:00

Wind, hail, and a tornado report can be seen cluttering the SPC Storm Report map over NY. Yesterday, an advancing frontal system pushed through NY. The warm sector was conducive to single-cell severe storms, which meandered across portions of central and southern NY during the afternoon hours:

05/16/09:

Once again, the timing of the system gave the western 2/3 of NY the upper-hand in instability, compared to the eastern 1/3 of NY. I heard a rumble of thunder from IC lightning every now and then as the main line pushed through Albany, but was otherwise uneventful.

Storm Reports From This Weekend

2009-05-12T21:49:00.004-04:00

A hail report squeaked its way into NY Friday ahead of the main day of storms, as a couple of isolated cells that night showed severe potential, with the one producing:

05/08/09:

Saturday was the big day across NY and the Northeast. The Capital District saw some thunderstorms, but I wasn't able to get any good pictures, save a video or two of some interesting cloud structures. MA and NH each saw weak tornadoes as the storm pushed east, which makes me extremely jealous:

05/09/09:

There is a new threat lining up for NY and the Northeast this upcoming Saturday. Unfortunately, this is my graduation weekend, and I will be occupied with other things for most of the day Saturday. Hopefully I get to see something interesting.

Severe Weather in New York State Nearing Imminence

2009-05-09T12:07:00.009-04:00

Greetings all...It is currently 1609 UTC, and much of New York State is under a "Slight" risk for severe thunderstorms by the SPC. Albany is literally smack in the middle of this threat zone, with 5% chance for damaging tornadoes and 15% chance for damaging wind/large hail. Several of us Metards will be attempting to "chase" later on assuming things heat up nicely. As detailed by Mark Ellinwood in yesterday's post, L-I-F-T is present and is increasing as we get insolation. Some nice graphics are appended, and more updates (possibly from the road) will follow.....

...cue Van Halen's "Humans Being", maestro!

1630 UTC UPDATE (from Ellinwood):

SPC has updated the wind threat to a 30% chance over NY:

A severe thunderstorm watch has also been issued for most of NY:

Severe Weather Possible Tomorrow

2009-05-08T20:10:00.005-04:00

NY is primed for thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon and evening. A shortwave trough will speed through the region, bringing strong upper-level dynamics into a somewhat-unstable atmosphere. All of this spells "L-I-F-T," which could lead to some severe weather.

SPC still seems to be underplaying the probability for severe weather, keeping most of NY in the 5% region. However, the 15% bubble has been slowly creeping north over the last few days, which may mean good things for further upstate.

The main concern is that wonderful stuff we like to call "clouds." If the Sun can break them up sufficiently tomorrow, we can see the chance for severe weather rise pretty quickly.

Great wind profile, SFC CAPE progged by NAM and GFS to be around 1000 J/kg... gonna be a good day!

Also expect strong winds following the frontal passage as the powerful shortwave pushes east Saturday night into Sunday.

(click sounding to enlarge)

Another Week Of No Boomers Ahead For NY

2009-05-03T10:25:00.004-04:00

The models are not supporting any type of severe weather, or even general thunderstorms, for most of NY for the upcoming week. I'm starting to lose my patience, as the last few attempts of a thunderstorm in Albany either never happened, or died out before reaching us.

Perhaps a shower or two will be around in the upcoming week, with some areas of heavier rain. NYC and Long Island could see some good amounts of precip by the end of the week. Other than that, temps will be near average for this time of the year. We may see a slight warm-up towards the second half of the week, but it will also be accompanied by cloudy skies and occasional precip.

Sorry I waited until the last day to make the minimum of two updates. It's been a very busy week.

Research On Marcellus And Utica Tornadoes Complete

2009-05-03T10:21:00.002-04:00

I've finished my research for the 29 July 2006 tornadoes of Marcellus and Utica, NY. I will not post my results quite yet, as I will probably need to clean it up a bit and maybe try to get it published.

At any rate, here's the original abstract:

On 29 July 2006, a line of storms produced two F0 tornadoes in Marcellus and Utica, NY at approximately 2000Z and 1930Z, respectively. To investigate the cause of these tornadoes, an analysis of the synoptic, mesoscale and air column data was performed. The synoptic analysis of the surface and upper-levels indicates forcing for ascent along a surface cold front, which was enhanced by a weak 300 hPa jet streak aloft. Air column data suggests thermodynamic forcing for ascent in the mid- and upper-levels from Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE). Forcing for ascent is also indicated by the veering wind profile and wind speeds increasing with height throughout most of the troposphere. The analysis of the mesoscale data reveals the true culprit behind the tornadogenesis that occurred over Marcellus and Utica.

Oswego County Hit By Hail

2009-04-25T19:11:00.003-04:00

An unexpected hail report came in from the north country as scattered showers and thunderstorms moved through the region on the 21st:

4/21/09:

More severe weather is expected throughout the next few days as a couple of fronts make their way through NY. Parts of NY saw thunderstorms overnight last night, and more are entering western NY and pushing east tonight.

I will be waiting patiently, camera at the ready.

My Research From the 2009 NESC

2009-04-21T09:12:00.004-04:00

I've finally gotten around to uploading a .pdf of my 2009 NESC presentation. The link will likely change after my web space from SUNY Albany is taken away, but I will put it up on there for now. I should really find a more permanent place to put that stuff...

The research has a synoptic scale analysis, as well as a closer look into the mesoscale features of the case studies. This is mostly preliminary research, and more cases could be added in the future. I will probably not continue this research, as I have seen others working on similar situations involving elevated convection, such as Nolan Atkins and Todd Lanouette, who, are working on bow echo storms. They've already come up with some great conclusions about elevated convection that further research on my part would only back up their findings, and not provide a significant contribution to the scientific community.

A Comparison of Cold Season Non-severe Wind Storms and Severe Wind Outbreaks in New York State

NOTE: The "which is which?" slides are animations that do not work on the PDF, so you may disregard those two slides. They merely show the similarity between the radar signatures of surface and elevated convection.

Thunderstorms And Severe Weather May Push Into The Northeast

2009-04-19T09:20:00.006-04:00

Over the next few days, an upper-level trough will work its way out of the southern Great plains and push northeast through the Midwest. It's looking like NY will see two bursts of precipitation associated with this trough tomorrow and Tuesday. The first one will be along an occluded front of a weakening system that is currently centered over the southern Great Plains. The most southern parts of NY could hear some rumbles of thunder from elevated convection with this first line of storms as it pushes through tomorrow evening. Both the GFS and NAM are in excellent agreement as to the timing and amount of precipitation associated with this line of storms.

As this storm lifts out of the upper-level trough, another system will dig into the trough, briefly intensifying it Tuesday before the trough lifts off to the northeast. This could provide southern and eastern NY with a brief period in the warm sector of the low pressure system, which could fuel some decent thunderstorms. A few of these storms may produce small hail and gusty (but non-severe) winds.

Tomorrow:

Tuesday:

But all of this is nothing compared to what we have coming up.

Over the weekend, we're looking at the first real chance for good severe weather in NY. A strong ridge will be in place over the eastern US during the week, and will provide a nice southerly flow in the latter part of the week. This will help draw Gulf moisture and warm temperatures into NY ahead of an upper-level trough, which will be digging down from central Canada. This trough is progged by the GFS to bottom-out just to the west of NY. The GFS may be a little bold with the strength of the instability at this point and time, but high temperatures this weekend are forecast to be a bit warmer than the GFS indicates (as the GFS trends towards climo this far out), so it could also be underplaying some aspects of the instability as well.

Based on the GFS forecast, it looks like a line of storms oriented SW-NE will push east along a cold front through NY Sunday afternoon, providing strong winds and some hail. This is definitely THE storm to track through the upcoming week. Hopefully it will pan out!

Sunday afternoon:

Amazing Sounding: Corpus Christi

2009-04-17T13:02:00.004-04:00

Get a napkin ready to wipe the drool off of your face after you see these soundings:

You don't see stuff like this very often!

Researching The 2006 Marcellus, NY Tornado

2009-04-15T20:56:00.003-04:00

Not much in the way of exciting weather is going on this week. Hopefully we'll see a more favorable environment for storms in the Northeast somewhere around the end of April.

For one of my classes, I have decided to do a case study of the F0 tornado that struck my hometown of Marcellus, NY back in 2006. I will post the paper here when it is done.

For those of you wondering why I haven't put up my research from earlier this year up, it is because I forgot to. I'll put a research tab on the left-hand link area and throw the powerpoint and other stuff in there.

It looks like I may be going to NCSU in the fall, so I will probably not have any more NY pictures to post after the move. However, I will keep updating this site and adding on to it, and I will probably also start another blog that is more general and caters to me having to move around a bit over the next several years. This blog has been going for about a year now (1 year anniversary is April 19th, yay us!), and I have learned a lot from doing it. I hope that people other than myself have found this site to be useful in one way or another.

Brushfire Leads To 6-Alarm Blaze On Staten Island

2009-04-12T17:09:00.005-04:00

Around 1:00pm local time, a brush fire broke out on Staten Island. It has quickly grown into a 6-Alarm fire, and is threatening homes and infrastructure. One home is completely engulfed in fire, and other houses are at risk of becoming ablaze as strong winds push the smoke and ash southeastward.

Here is a radar from earlier today, with the smoke plume clearly visible to the southeast of Staten Island:

Links with early reports on the fire:
http://www.silive.com/news/index.ssf/2009/04/brush_fire_on_staten_island_ca.html
http://www.ny1.com/content/top_stories/97273/crews-battle-massive-brush-fire-on-staten-island/Default.aspx

More news on the brush fire as it develops. Fellow blogger Mark McIntyre is within three-minute walking distance from his house to the intense fires, and he will have some eyewitness information for us soon.

Dry Northeast Starting To See Drought Conditions Arise

2009-04-11T23:50:00.006-04:00

Since the start of the year, NY and the Northeast has seen below-average precipitation amounts, and it's starting to show. Below average monthly precipitation totals have been recorded throughout most of NY since January, and the next week looks like it will only add to the deficit, as a series of high pressure systems keep rain out of the Northeast.

While drought conditions are still relatively minor, a couple more months of prolonged dry weather could see these conditions rapidly deteriorate, which does not bode well for farmers as planting season for many crops is just around the corner.

To keep up with the drought conditions in the Northeast, you can visit the following link:
http://www.drought.unl.edu/dm/DM_northeast.htm

Lull In NY Weather, So Here's A Couple Weather Links!

2009-04-09T11:56:00.004-04:00

Since it looks like the weather in NY will be pretty boring for awhile, here's a couple of weather links to keep you on the up-and-up on forecasting!

1. METAR data (defaulted to KALB for 60 hours) - Courtesy of UCAR
What it is: This site shows us the METAR weather code for virtually any station. This link is so special because it was really hard for me to find.
Why it's awesome: Take a good look at the URL. This link is for KALB, but you can enter any four-letter station ID you wish. Also note the "hoursStr=past+60+hours" section. The 60 can be made to any 12-hour interval you desire, for up to a month out into the past (~756 hours max)! This is a very nice feature, as you can look up what kind of weather a station has been having for the last month, which is useful to those who participate in forecasting contests like myself.

2. TwisterData.com - Courtesy of TornadoVideos.net
What it is: A high-res look at the nation from the GFS and NAM forecast models. This site is pretty expansive in its features, allowing you to look at dozens of different model outputs in an easy-to-navigate manner.
Why it's awesome: Easy to use, awesome features, and it's still in its infancy! Expect to see new features added to this site to make it even more user friendly in the near future, along with more model data (see the site for specific details). It also has a four-day archive of model outputs, so you can compare 16 different NAM/GFS runs if you want to! This site makes it really easy to look at severe weather components, which saves me a bunch of time since I don't have to look at several different sites to get my wind, moisture, and sounding data anymore.

Take them, cherish them, and get to know them! These two links provide me with a lot of information that I use on a regular basis, and I hope you will find them as useful as I do!

Another Chance For Elevated Convection For Monday. Also, Snow...

2009-04-05T11:35:00.004-04:00

As yet another low pressure system pushes into the Northeast, NY is faced with the possibility of thunderstorms associated with elevated convection. The thunderstorms are expected to pop up along an occluded front Monday morning, and push northeast from western NY to eastern NY throughout the mid-morning and afternoon hours.

The GFS is being a lot more generous than the NAM with elevated CAPE in NY, with values of over 800 J/kg over Albany at around 2pm EDT. NAM is suggesting more moist mid- and upper-levels, with elevated CAPE values of less than 100 J/kg. P-Wat values of about one inch will help fuel the storms as they push through NY.

The main discrepancy between the models is the overall strength of the mid- and upper-level jets over NY. The GFS is forecasting stronger mid- and upper-level winds, which would advect steeper lapse rates into these levels and provide the larger elevated CAPE values. I tend to go with a mean value over Albany, since the GFS tends to overestimate CAPE values, and the NAM slightly underestimates it. Realistically, I would expect Albany to hit elevated CAPE values of 200-300 J/kg...enough to trigger some boomers!

This line of possible thunderstorms will also bring heavy rain, with a large portion of NY progged to receive over half an inch of precipitation. Lesser values are forecasted for areas not fully affected by this line of storms.

Following the passage of the occluded front, snow is expected throughout most of NY. Temps will reach below freezing at times in much of the western half of NY, which could see some snow accumulations. Areas affected by lake effect could see very generous snowfall totals for this time of the year, with 3-6"+ expected in the stronger lake-effect bands. In the eastern half of NY, temps will be a bit warmer, so valley areas could see some snow showers mixed with rain, but little to no accumulation. Elevations above 1200' in eastern NY can expect to see some snow accumulation from the trailing end of this storm.

Thunderstorms in ALB tomorrow?

2009-04-02T21:01:00.003-04:00

So after the nice complex of storms that affected the Southeast and Gulf Coast states today, us weather nerds up here at UAlbany are looking forward to the possibility of more thunderstorms tomorrow. The 990-hPa low that is currently over AR/TN will make its way northeastward towards us, eventually taking a track west of the Capital Region. Appended is the SPC's current Day 2 outlook, followed by total precipitation forecast ending 0000Z 4 April 2009.

Storm Creates One Last Day Of Havoc As It Moves Off The Coast

2009-03-30T15:16:00.005-04:00

The most recent storm, which brought plenty of severe weather across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic, still had a trick up its sleeve before moving off the coast yesterday. A very stacked and very strong low pressure center worked its way over PA and NY, which brought a great amount of energy into the region. This energy took the form of severe thunderstorms, which worked their way over the eastern half of PA, eventually coming into contact with NJ, southern NY and NYC/LI.

3/29/09:

Albany saw its first round of thunderstorm activity last night. Unfortunately, I was at work, and could not really watch it or take any video.

Welcome to Spring!

Staten Island Got Hail!

2009-03-29T22:59:00.005-04:00

Yes, Staten Island managed to get hail with the line of storms that passed through tonight. The size was 0.88", or nickel-sized, which qualifies the thunderstorms as severe! Here is the verification from the SPC:

0015 88 8 SW TOMPKINSVILLE RICHMOND (STATEN NY 4055 7418 NICKEL SIZED HAIL (OKX)

And here is the image of all of the storm reports from the SPC:

Here is an image of the hailstones that my little brother took during the storm:

Severe Weather Hits NYC and I'm NOT THERE!

2009-03-29T20:03:00.003-04:00

Well, NYC is about to get its nice first batch of severe weather of the season, and I'm not at home. I'm working on my Synoptic II paper, but still monitoring the radar, and I must say, it looks nice. A very well-defined hook echo was visible tracking northeastward from Bergen County (NJ) into Rockland County (NY). More posts will come later when it has passed.

Elevated Convection Potential In NY Tomorrow

2009-03-28T11:38:00.003-04:00

The storm that is currently wreaking havoc from the Great Plains eastward is going to push into the northeast over the next couple of days. Most of the upper-level forcing associated with this storm will be over western NY on Sunday, and will push eastward in the afternoon and overnight hours. Elevated CAPE values in the 500-800 J/kg range will also help lift air parcels and create some interesting weather over NY tomorrow.

There is a possibility of an elevated squall line development along the cold/occluded front tomorrow across NY and PA eastward. While NY may only get a taste of it, it just needs to get far enough north to let me snap some shots of it! The only downfall is that I work tomorrow evening, so the chance to watch it depends solely on when the front plans on passing through.

From the most recent AFD from the ALY NWS:

A SECONDARY CONCERN FOR SUNDAY...WHICH COULD HAVE A DIRECT IMPACT ON
QPF AMOUNTS...IS FOR ANY ELEVATED CONVECTION. THE LATEST 12 UTC
NAM12 SHOWS FORECASTED SHOWALTER VALUES LESS THAN ZERO ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CWA JUST BEFORE THE PASSAGE OF THE OCCLUDED BOUNDARY...WITH
VALUES AS LOW AS -3.5 MOVING FROM ACROSS THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND
CAPITAL DISTRICT. THE NAM12 IS ALSO VERY IMPRESSIVE WITH FORECASTED
850-500 HPA LAPSE RATES OF 6.5-6.9 DEGREES C/KM. ALONG WITH LOCALLY
HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS...LAPSE RATES OF THIS MAGNITUDE COULD ALLOW
FOR SOME SMALL SOFT HAIL /GRAUPEL/ AS WELL. THE THREAT FOR THUNDER
WOULD BE INCREASED AS WELL IF ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
OCCUR...ALTHOUGH BOTH THE NAM12/GFS IMPLY ACCORDING TO 850 HPA RH
THAT THIS WOULD REMAIN FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL PA. INCREASING
THE CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS THE LATEST 12 UTC LOCAL HIRESWRF...WHOSE
FORECASTED COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY SHOWS A BKN CONVECTIVE LINE
DEVELOPING LATE SUN AFTN ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PA...AND ADVANCES IT
TOWARDS OUR CATSKILL/MID HUDSON VALLEY ZONES BY EVENING. SPC ALREADY
HAS OUR REGION OUTLINED IN GENERAL THUNDER...WITH A SLT RISK
REMAINING TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS SOUTH JERSEY AND THE DELMARVA.

Strong Severe Outbreak Potential For The Southeast March 27-28

2009-03-24T20:50:00.004-04:00

Though the exact timing and overall strength of the storm is still debatable, the models are agreeing that a significant storm will dig down from the Northwest into the large scale upper-level trough that is currently over the central U.S. during the second half of the work week. The main discrepancy in timing the storm lies as to whether or not the storm will cut-off, or remain in the main flow. This storm has the potential to wreak havoc from eastern Texas eastward across the Southeast. On the other side of the storm, widespread winter weather is possible for areas as far south as northern Texas, in a swath that extends north and east into the Great Lakes as time progresses.

The general consensus among the models shows an impressive upper-level vort max digging into the Texas region Friday as it bottoms out in the large-scale trough. An upper-level jet in the base of the trough will provide southwesterly winds, which will draw the dry upper-level air off of the Mexican Plateau into the South and Southeast. This will create good upper-level lapse rates and decrease the upper-level stability.

The cold front currently draped over the Midwest and Southeast will stall in the South and Southeast Wednesday, which will continually draw Gulf moisture into the Southeast over the next few days. A couple of weak systems are expected to form off of this boundary and move off to the northeast before the big storm makes its way in. There will be enough instability south of this boundary to initiate some severe weather Wednesday through Friday, but nothing significant is forecasted for this time period.

The low-level moisture that will be in place over the Southeast will provide a good source of instability for the main storm when it enters the region, with surface dewpoints forecasted to be in the lower 60s at the time of arrival of the storm. A Bermuda High will also be in place over the next few days, which will enhance the southerly flow off of the Gulf of Mexico.

Along with the impressive vort max in the 500mb level, The strength of the lower- and upper-level jets seem to be the major players for this storm. The main concern is with the forecasted strength of these jets. The GFS has the most robust forecast for this storm, with strong upper-level winds bringing in dry air aloft, and a strong southerly jet in the lower-levels, which will draw the moist Gulf air north and provide significant low-level wind speed shear. Weaker winds for either jet can quickly turn this disaster scenario into a more moderate event.

All that being said, I am going to side closely with the GFS, as it has done fairly well with forecasting the first few big troughs of the season, with surprisingly good accuracy in the 4-6 day range. Both the GFS and NAM are forecasting a generous area of 2000+ J/kg CAPE, with some areas possibly exceeding 3000 J/kg CAPE (with a bulls-eye over Louisiana). P-Wat values are forecasted to be in the 1.5"-1.75" range when the storm arrives in the Southeast. Impressive low-level speed and directional wind shear will lead to plenty hail and a good amount of severe wind and tornadic activity in the Southeast. A nice cap will also be present around the 850mb level, before getting eroded by diurnal heating and vertical motion, which rounds out the setup for a classic "loaded gun" environment.

Mon/Tues Outbreak Potential In The Great Plains

2009-03-22T16:38:00.009-04:00

The dull weather continues in NY, so I thought I'd do a severe weather analysis for the upcoming storm:

The ingredients are beginning to mix a little better together as the Big Day approaches. Over the last few days, the models have put together a stronger westerly jet in the base of the upper-level trough, which will serve to bring in drier air off of the Rockies into the upper atmosphere. This will provide the Great Plains with about 500 J/kg more CAPE than was predicted a couple of days ago, putting the total forecasted CAPE in the 1000-1500 J/kg range for the more unstable areas. However, low-level moisture is still an issue, as forecasted surface dewpoints in the 50-60 range for most of the severe weather threat area decreases the great potential instability associated with this storm system.

Wind speed shear associated with a low-level southerly jet ahead of the system has improved as well, which not only increases the low-level instability, but also helps draw Gulf moisture further north. The great wind shear generated by this system will provide a favorable environment for supercell thunderstorms, with plenty of hail, strong winds and some tornadoes.

Storm formation will be hindered in the early part of Monday due to a nice cap in the mid-levels, with a lack of major instability near the surface. The big guns will likely show up in the late afternoon and early evening hours in the Great Plains as the cap breaks down, and push eastward in the overnight hours. The severe storms will likely continue working their way into the Midwest and Southeast Tuesday, causing a bit of mayhem in those regions as well, but they should not be as intense as Monday night's storms.

Some pretty forecast graphics for everyone to enjoy:

Upcoming Project... Making Databases

2009-03-20T17:41:00.004-04:00

This Spring and Summer I plan on making several databases concerning severe weather in NY...from SPC storm reports to the actual warnings to pictures to maps and other data. I'm going to start with the most recent stuff and work my way back. I'll also post links to the blog for the dates where possible. This ought to be interesting...

Cold Front Brings Rain, Slight Cool-down

2009-03-18T14:45:00.009-04:00

A cold front will bring rain and a few rumbles of thunder into NY today through tomorrow morning. A brief period of cooler weather will follow the front into Friday...temps will be about 3-5 degrees below normal, with highs in the lower 40s for Albany. It will quickly warm back up to normal Saturday, and these normal temps (highs in the upper 40s for Albany, with some lower 50s thrown in) will continue through mid-week next week as another ridge takes a seat over the eastern portions of the US.

Yay...another week of boring weather for NY... *sigh*

In my map discussion during class yesterday, I mentioned the possibility of severe weather in the Great Plains for Monday/Tuesday next week due to the trough that will be digging into the southwest US over the weekend. The SPC is on board with this prediction, and issued the outlook today as confidence increased from yesterday.

At this point and time, the situation doesn't look too crazy. Just your typical severe weather pattern here... no real plans to turn into a huge outbreak. The big thing hurting this storm will be the lack up good upper-level lapse rates, which takes a big chunk out of the possible CAPE...otherwise this storm would be a lot scarier. To get this CAPE, the trough will have to dig a bit deeper to tap into the dry upper-level air that the Mexican Plateau has to offer. P-Wat values (provided by the Gulf) are pretty good, and the low-level shear (in the surface-3km range) looks impressive, so it definitely looks like we'll see a few good storms in the Great Plains (and perhaps pushing into the Southeast) Monday and Tuesday.

There is a SLIGHT possibility of getting some severe weather action from this system in NY as it pushes north and east. The main concern will be the strength of the ridge over us as the storm tries to move into NY. If the ridge is too strong, the storm will slide north and just give us some rain. Still, we're talking seven days out at this point, so hopefully a more favorable severe weather forecast will come into play later this week!

Spring Is Here...Warm, Parched

2009-03-13T09:18:00.004-04:00

It appears as though winter has thrown in the towel for this season in NY. Warmer temps that are slightly above normal for this time will be the main weather factor through the beginning of next week. Aside from a chance of rain mid-week next week, we'll generally have fair weather as a high pressure dominates the region.

So get the last of the snow out of your yard, get the car cleaned and ready for Spring, and take a nice walk outside, as the next five days or so will be a great time for all of these activities! We have the outdoors back!

Severe Weather Potential In Western NY In The Morning

2009-03-10T10:28:00.003-04:00

I've been watching this storm form since Saturday, but I haven't had the foresight to post about it here until now. A storm brewing in the Midwest will push northeast and enter NY during the morning hours tomorrow, 3/11. Up until now, it looked like NY wouldn't get into the severe action, as the occluded front was forecasted to pass through. However, recent models and forecasts indicate a brief period in the warm sector of the storm, which might give that little extra push needed to put some wind reports in NY.

SPC doesn't have western NY in the slight region, but they've done this before with cases where we've had multiple wind reports:

HPC's surface forecast for this storm continues to improve NY's chances of getting severe storms:

That brief warm period may have what it takes to give us our first multiple-report day of the year!

Downtime... Presentation Coming Soon!

2009-03-04T22:42:00.002-05:00

I'm getting my presentation for the 34th Annual Northeastern Storm Conference ready, so I won't be making any real updates this week.

NY: Warmer temps ahoy! We finally get to see a good warm-up period!

Keep an eye on the South on Sunday!

Snow To Wreak Havoc In Southeastern NY And The East Coast

2009-03-01T12:19:00.006-05:00

A powerful storm is already creating quite a mess in parts of the southeastern US today, and will make its way up the east coast tonight, bringing heavy snow to NYC and southeastern NY.

All of the models are in pretty strong agreement as to the path and timing of this storm as it progresses north and east. The UKMET is the only major deviation, with a more easterly track, which would spell lighter snow accumulations for NY. Most of the other models are calling for a big QPF of 1-1.2" over NYC, which will equate to 8-14" of snow by Monday afternoon. Long Island is likely to see even more, with an estimated 12-18" of snow, since it will be in the more intense area of precipitation. This will make it a real headache for people to get anywhere in NYC and Long Island.

Here are the NAM and GFS 24-hour forecasts for 6-hour QPF (to fall just before the morning commute on Monday):

This storm is going to inundate much of the east coast, including the major metropolitan areas of Washington, D.C., NYC and Boston. It's the storm that's been long in the making, and many people were sure/hoping it was going to come. I have a feeling a lot of people are going to stay home on Monday.

Here's a little awesomeness from Atlanta, GA:
KATL 011752Z 32015KT 1/4SM R09R/3500V4500FT +TSSN FG OVC004CB 01/00 A2972 RMK AO2 TSB37 SLP067 OCNL LTGIC OHD TS OHD-ALQDS MOV SW 4/001 P0013 60060 T00060000 10067 20006 51013

Heavy thundersnow, with an inch of snow falling in that hour!

The snowfall amounts quickly drop off in NY as you move north and west. Albany is on the outer fringe of the larger snowfall area, and is expected to receive 2-5" from this storm. Parts of western and central NY will see some lake effect snow on the order of 1-3" as the storm moves off the coast. Lake effect accumulations are light because the winds will be northerly, which gives the air less time to gather moisture from Lake Ontario and Lake Erie.

The rest of the work week looks to be pretty fair in NY, with a chance of mixed precipitation on Friday and Saturday.

UPDATE:
Following the trends of the newer model runs, I'm upgrading the Albany snowfall total to 4-6". Isn't nowcasting fun?

Storm Enters NYS, Brings Warmth, Rain, Possible Flooding

2009-02-27T08:24:00.005-05:00

As forecasted, the low pressure system will be moving through today, providing NYS with seasonably warm temperatures and rain. Some parts of western and central NY, along with some of the higher elevations, could receive a little snow at the tail end of the precipitation. A few rumbles of thunder may also be heard. Flooding remains a concern in rivers and streams, with the combined effects of melting snow and rainfall, especially in the Adirondacks and Catskills. Here is the flood watch issued today for these parts:

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ALBANY HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD WATCH FOR A PORTION OF EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK...INCLUDING
THE FOLLOWING AREAS...EASTERN ALBANY...EASTERN GREENE...
EASTERN SCHENECTADY...EASTERN ULSTER...HAMILTON...MONTGOMERY...
NORTHERN FULTON...NORTHERN HERKIMER...SCHOHARIE...SOUTHERN
FULTON...SOUTHERN HERKIMER...SOUTHERN SARATOGA...WESTERN
ALBANY...WESTERN GREENE...WESTERN SCHENECTADY AND WESTERN
ULSTER.

* THROUGH LATE TONIGHT

* MILD TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S
WILL RESULT IN MELTING SNOW ACROSS THE WATCH AREA. IN
ADDITION...A THIRD OF AN INCH TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF
RAIN IS EXPECTED TODAY INTO EARLY THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT WHICH WILL BRING COLDER TEMPERATURES BACK TO THE REGION
LATER TONIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT MAYBE
ENOUGH TO DISLODGE SOME OF THE ICE ON RIVERS AND STREAMS. THE
ICE CHUNKS WOULD THEN FLOAT DOWNSTREAM AND MAY FORM ICE JAMS
WHERE THE RIVERS TRANSPORT CAPACITY IS EXCEEDED. FAVORABLE
LOCATIONS FOR ICE JAMS INCLUDE...OBSTRUCTIONS IN THE CHANNEL
SUCH AS ISLANDS...LOCKS AND BRIDGE PIERS...CHANGES IN THE
CHANNEL SUCH AS BENDS...GORGES AND AREAS WHERE THE CHANNEL
NARROWS...AREAS WHERE THERE IS A CHANGE IN CHANNEL DEPTH...DEEP
WATER TO SHALLOW WATER...AND MERGERS OF RIVER CHANNELS.

* ICE JAMS CAN OCCUR SUDDENLY AND ARE HIGHLY UNSTABLE. WATER CAN
BACKUP QUICKLY BEHIND AN ICE JAM AND FLOOD AN AREA IN A MATTER
OF MINUTES. IN ADDITION...IF AN ICE JAM BREAKS A SUDDEN RELEASE
OF WATER CAN FLOOD AREAS DOWNSTREAM.

Also, looking at Buffalo's sounding from this morning, it looks like there is also the possibility of strong, gusty winds occurring in western and central NY along the cold front as it passes through. A band of moderate rain will likely accompany the wind.

The second storm, forecasted for the end of the weekend, appears to be tracking further and further off the coast. This means that most of NYS will not be getting any precipitation from it. Portions of southeastern NY might receive a light rain/snow mix Sunday morning as the system moves off the coast.

Cooler temperatures will take a hold in NYS after the passage of the second storm, as high pressure moves into the region. This high might get temporarily broken down in the middle of next week as a clipper system moves across the state, bringing light precipitation at best. The high will then rebuild after the clipper passes through.

Rain/Snow Storm Friday, With Storm Possibilities Sunday

2009-02-23T20:04:00.003-05:00

The models are agreeing fairly well on a mixed rain and snow event for Friday. Most of the state will receive rain, with periods of freezing rain and sleet. As the cold moves in behind the low, snow will also be present for areas of western and northern NY and at higher elevations:

Some areas in NYS will be susceptible to flooding as this storm moves through, as the rainfall and seasonably warm temps will eat away at the snow pack. Icy sidewalks and pavements will also be a concern during the overnight hours, as the temps drop into the 10s and 20s. The GFS ensemble and other MREF forecasts are in close enough agreement with this storm for me to be pretty confident with this forecast.

The 18z GFS has also included a big storm into the Sunday forecast:

Do not be fooled, though. This run appears to be an outlier, as the GFS ensemble forecasts show the vast uncertainty that comes along with this second system. The ECMWF has quite a different solution, with the storm diving further south and making its way up north on Monday instead.

As you can see, there are very different solutions for this second storm, so much can't be said about it at this time. The main low could track west of the Appalachians, or hug the coast as it moves northward. There are also solutions that have no precip for NYS, so anything can happen at this point.

NYS To Miss Another Big Storm Today

2009-02-22T10:21:00.009-05:00

The models have been slowly pushing this storm further and further east. With the heavy precip just crossing over into eastern NYS, these small shifts mean big differences in certain parts of the state, such as my location in Albany.

Here are the 06z NAM and GFS runs from earlier today:

This correlates into about 2-4" of snow for the Albany area. I'm going with 1-3", since there is a possibility of some mixed precip during the storm if the surface warms up enough. Not a bad event, but it's peanuts compared to parts of northern New England, Maine in particular. Some areas are expected to get 12-18" of snow by the end of the storm tomorrow night, with localized areas of 18-24". Yeah...they can have that for all I care.

And of course there's going to be lake effect for those who live further west, but that's just a given.

NYS Remains Quiet... Southeast Gets Tornado Outbreak

2009-02-20T13:48:00.002-05:00

Besides an inch of snow (which melted already) and some rain, the Wednesday/Thursday event was... uneventful for most of NYS. The southeastern states saw a tornado outbreak, recording the second EF4 of the season, along with the first EF3 and many smaller tornadoes.

The latest GFS runs are throwing in a Nor'easter into the New England states this Sunday, which will scrape the eastern parts of NYS. The NAM run has the main precip core a bit further east. The discrepancy is the secondary low forecasted to form just off the coast, which the GFS has forming and deepening sooner than the NAM. The NAM is in closer agreement with the European model than the GFS is, so I'm banking on the storm staying further east. Good news for us winter haters!

Storm To Bring Wintry Mix Into NYS Tomorrow

2009-02-17T16:24:00.004-05:00

A storm that is gathering strength in the Central Plains states today, and will make its way northeast into NYS Wednesday afternoon and evening. The storm will begin as snow, and will likely transition over to rain in the valley regions during the overnight hours. Albany will be getting a nice southerly flow, which will help hinder the accumulation of snow. 1-3 inches of snow is expected to fall before the transition, which will make for slushy road conditions for the Thursday morning commute.

Periods of a rain/snow mix are also expected, but luckily sleet and freezing rain won't be a factor in this storm. The rain/snow showers are expected to taper off by Thursday afternoon, with scattered flurries Thursday evening and Friday. We will catch a short break before another system moves into the region, which will bring some small additional snow accumulations during the weekend, with 0 to 3 inches of snow falling across the state.

Tomorrow looks like the start of another dynamic pattern, in which NYS will get a storm every 2-3 days for at least the next couple of weeks. The storms over a week out from now appear to be mostly rain, but these storms are too far out to make any deterministic forecasts.

Update On Severe Weather In The South, And NYS Weather

2009-02-12T10:52:00.010-05:00

NYS missed out on severe storms last night, with the exception of one lone wind report, as the main line that produced well over 300 wind reports in the Southeast, Midwest and Mid-Atlantic states petered-out before entering NYS:

2/11/09

My prediction for a tornado outbreak on the 10th was confirmed by additional reports that came in yesterday after storm damage was analyzed in the southern Great Plains:

It just squeaked in as an outbreak, with the minimum of six tornado reports, but was an outbreak nonetheless. The wikipedia article on this event is a little contradictory, stating that there were seven tornadoes reported. Included is an EF4 wedge tornado, with unfortunately cut through the town of Lone Grove, Oklahoma, which has thus far killed at least 9 people, with about 50 others injured. A local news station, KOCO, has video footage of an EF2 tornado taken from their news helicopter. The severe potential is minimal through the rest of the week, which is good news for those involved in the cleanup from these storms.

As this storm moves off the coast, NYS is left with near-normal temps, with lows in the teens and highs in the low to mid 30s. Today will remain windy, with scattered rain and snow showers as temps fall throughout the day. Expect drier conditions to dominate our weather from tomorrow until around mid-week next week. The latest model runs indicate a mixed-precip nor'easter, which could greatly affect NYS weather around Wednesday. I will keep an eye on this system, and report on it later this week as I get a better look as to how this storm will track.

UPDATE:
As reports and assessments continue to come into the NWS, the tornado count for February 10-11 is up to 11, with two more tornadoes occurring the next day.

Also updated to include the new wind report that popped up.

National Severe Thunderstorm Season About To Get Underway

2009-02-08T11:15:00.004-05:00

Severe weather is popping up in the forecasts! It's not up here in NYS yet, but we might see a little bit in the upcoming week.

For the short term, there is a slight risk of severe storms just east of the Rockies, mostly in western Texas. This storm has a VERY SLIGHT risk of producing tornadoes, but we'll likely just see some wind and hail reports from this system.

Day 1 Outlook (tornado: 2%, hail: 15%, wind: 15%):

What we're really watching is the storm that forms in the wake of this one, which is forecast to have a much higher potential of producing severe storms and tornadoes than the one that is currently forming. Day 3 brings a much higher risk of supercell thunderstorms and tornadoes, and it looks like this second system could produce our first tornado outbreak of the season. If not, then it certainly has the capacity to produce a lot of wind and hail reports. CAPE is going to be the make-or-break factor for the chance of tornadoes, which, at this point, is forecasted to max out around 500-700 J/kg, whereas environments more favorable to tornadoes have at least twice as much CAPE. If this storm can gather enough energy, it will become powerful indeed.

Day 3 Outlook (overall chance of severe weather):

This stronger storm is forcasted to move northeast from the Great Plains, and enter NYS early Thursday morning. However, this is still a reasonable amount of uncertainty with this storm as to where it will track. The "doomsday scenario" for NYS includes a brief period in the warm sector of this storm, which could give us the potential for severe weather before the storm moves out. The more likely scenario is that NYS just gets a few showers, with brief periods of moderate rain.

But one can always dream...

Could A Regime Change End The Cold Spell? ...And Research

2009-02-03T21:04:00.007-05:00

Model runs are consistently showing the breakdown of a long-standing ridge over the western U.S. and eastern Pacific, which means that temps on the eastern half on the nation will warm up as the trough breaks down! Seasonal to above-average temps are expected in the coming days, which is good news for the snow haters out there (including myself).

As part of my own new regime, I plan on updating this site at least twice a week from now on. Perhaps it's time to get this thing really going.

As for my research, I have officially submitted it to the 34th Annual Northeastern Storm Conference. Below is the title and abstract for my paper. It is similar to the research I did last fall, except I've replaced the warm cases with control cases, which will strengthen the overall paper. I should be presenting this Saturday morning on March 7.

TITLE:

A Comparison Of Cold Season Non-severe Wind Storms
And Severe Wind Outbreaks In New York State

ABSTRACT:

This paper examines synoptic features associated with severe wind outbreaks in New York State (NY), and how they differ from similar outbreaks that produce strong, but mainly non-severe, winds. The differences between these events can be very subtle, but make a large impact as to whether or not the storms reach the 50 knot threshold needed to be considered severe. Being able to distinguish better between non-severe and severe wind events could help improve the accuracy and range of severe wind warnings in NY.

To determine synoptic features common to the severe wind outbreaks, three severe wind cases and three non-severe wind cases between 1 November and 21 March of the years 2005-2008 were analyzed to determine common synoptic-scale features using conventional upper air and surface data, as well as satellite and sounding data. A particular focus of the case studies was on the forcing for ascent, provided by vertical circulations associated with strong polar and subtropical jets. The sounding data also contained characteristic signatures, which help distinguish between non-severe winds and severe wind outbreaks. These common features could be used to potentially forecast future severe wind outbreaks in NY and adjacent areas.

Miserable Weather Continues In NYS

2009-01-08T13:48:00.004-05:00

A storm passed through yesterday, bringing mixed precipitation throughout the state. Albany got what could best be described as "a slushy mess" as a half-inch water equivalent fell from the sky.

Another storm, which looks like it will be mostly snow, will make its way over the state this weekend. It seems like we've gotten ourselves into quite a rut of a weather pattern: Consistently cold, with periods of strong winds and winter storms. I can't wait until we get some nice weather!

Storm Peters Out... Following Storm Packs Some Snow

2009-01-01T10:35:00.003-05:00

The storm on the 28th had the typical line just ahead of the cold front, but it was not powerful enough to produce wind reports in NYS. The upper level jets looked pretty weak, which dampened the upward motion needed to sustain the severe storms in NYS.

Yesterday, another snow storm put another 7-8 inches of the white stuff on the ground. This puts the NWS snowfall total at 28.0 inches, which is well on its way to reaching Albany's average of about 65 inches per year.

The snow storm also brought gusty winds and cold temperatures...with Albany International reaching a bone-chilling 3F. Winds were about 15-20 mph, with gusts to 25 mph, which made it feel -20F to -25F outside during the worst of it.

Brrrrrr!

Strong Storm System Pushes Into NYS

2008-12-28T11:23:00.003-05:00

NYS could see some severe wind reports today, as a storm system makes its way across the state today. The front has already produced a line of storms, which formed over lake Erie and died out shortly after passing Rochester. A new line could form over lake Ontario, which would have the potential to produce severe winds.

The line that passed through western NYS early this morning has not produced any reports yet, but the winds were quite strong. The Buffalo airport recorded wind speeds of 41 knots, gusting to 65! Rochester airport, which caught the end of the line of storms, reported winds speeds of 40 knots, with gusts as high as 55 knots.

Even without severe storms, wind is still a concern, as the cold front passage will be accompanied by strong westerly winds.

The Report That Sneaked By

2008-12-23T10:50:00.008-05:00

A narrow line of storms brought in one wind damage report in western NY last week, which was a little surprising, but not necessarily unexpected.

12/15/08

(click for a radar loop in larger resolution)

The radar and sounding closely match my findings for what causes severe wind reports in NYS. I shall elaborate on this more when I have worked on my research a bit more.

Speaking of my research, I am going to refine my paper to just include winter cases, and submit it to the 34th Annual Northeastern Storm Conference. Hopefully, I'll get a spot to present my original research to the scientific community. Because of this, I won't put my findings up here until after that, should my paper get accepted.

Duo Snowstorms Pack A One-Two Punch

2008-12-23T10:09:00.003-05:00

The last weekend of holiday shopping before Christmas was hindered in NYS by two snowstorms, which caused havoc on the roadways.

The first storm arrived on Friday, 12/19/08, around noontime at Albany. Conditions quickly worsened, as heavy snowfall limited visibility and made roads treacherous. The main part of the storm went on throughout the afternoon, and diminished in the evening hours. Flurries continued throughout the night, adding another inch or so to the storm total. Snowfall totals in the Albany area for this storm was between 8-10 inches.

Two days later, on Sunday, 12/21/08, a second storm rolled into the Capital Region in the late morning hours. Snowfall continued until the early evening, which provided the Albany area with another 6-8 inches of the white stuff.

My forecasts for both days for the Albany area was 7-9 inches for the Friday storm (which is what most people got), and 6-8 inches for the Sunday storm (nailed it!). Two for two so far... let's see how the rest of the season goes.

So here I sit, with 16 inches of snow at my front door. Add these storms to the ice storm from last week, and you've got one crazy start to the winter season!

Winter Storm Rocks NYS, New England

2008-12-15T10:42:00.007-05:00

12/12/08:
A coastal storm ramped up and slammed into NYS and New England Thursday and Friday, leaving a massive streak of ice and flooding in its wake. Not even Albany was spared from the onslaught of ice, which accumulated up to an inch or more in areas. Due to the nature of the storm, with a warm layer aloft and northerly winds at the surface bringing in subfreezing temperatures to all local areas, despite the difference in elevation. This caused the entire region to get freezing rain, which was in abundance due to the high amount of moisture that was drawn northwards by the storm.
-----
While the city kept its power going throughout most of the storm, many others in the outlying neighborhoods spent the weekend without power, which may not return until later this week.

Many schools canceled afternoon activities on Thursday, as the winter storm crept its way into the region. The storm dumped heavy rain over the region Thursday evening into Friday morning, which turned to ice due to the below-freezing temperatures at the surface. Tens of thousands lost power overnight, as ice caused power lines and trees to fall. Many people spent their Fridays at home, stranded because of the ice storm.

Some of those without power also suffered from flooding, as sump pumps sat idle without a power source. A fortunate few without power were able to purchase a generator to keep their losses to a minimum. One person I spoke to visited as many as 15 stores looking for this weekend's number one most-sold product in the region before finally getting the last available generator at that store.

The University At Albany, one of the few schools to have power on (most) of the campus Friday, remained open for finals, despite the inability of some students and professors to commute to the school.

Cleanup will continue through the week, as energy companies rush to restore power throughout the region.

So... What Happened?

2008-11-30T11:45:00.004-05:00

Though we did not get the outbreak I was hoping for, a few reports did arise:

11/15/08

A strong line of storms moved through NY and PA into the New England states, but it just wasn't strong enough to be a severe wind monster. Details will come soon, as I am trying to incorporate it into my research project.

Speaking of my research, the rough draft is completed. A final draft will be posted next week, and I might put up my powerpoint when it's finished this week.

The Tornado Watch for Albany NY and Surrounding Areas

2008-11-15T21:46:00.003-05:00

Well well well, it seems as if Mother Nature felt like toying with us again. I was watching FOX23 when I saw that our friend and fellow ATM graduate Ryan Finn issued a Tornado Watch for our area. Sure enough, we had a good amount of shear, moisture, and instability (SWEAT at 12Z sounding was 232 with some good veering). Although we didn't get any twisters, Washington County to our north had a wind report. Hopefully we get something real before winter sets in for good.

Possible Severe Weather Lines Up For NYS

2008-11-15T15:48:00.006-05:00

Although I have yet to post the findings of my research here, I would just like to note that I have completed the research.

Basically, today is lining up pretty well with my study of severe wind outbreaks that occurred during the late fall and early winter months, so the potential for a severe wind outbreak is definitely there.

As of now, portions of NYS, New England, and Mid Atlantic states are currently under a tornado watch... and for good reason!

So look out, eastern NYS and New England... it's gonna be a crazy day.

Discovery Of New Sites Bring New Ideas

2008-11-08T17:06:00.005-05:00

For a brief time, I was providing archived radar imagery and such for the severe weather events, only to find out that they stayed in the web site's database for a period of a week. While working on my research project, I was directed to several web sites, which have (among other things) archived radar and satellite (IR/Vis), and analyzed maps for upper-air stuff and what-not.

I will try to incorporate these things into my severe weather discussions and reports from now on.

*star swipe* The More You Know!

Strong Low Pressure System Brings Wind Damage

2008-10-29T13:03:00.002-04:00

Rumbles of thunder could be heard over Western and Central NY on Sunday. A powerful cold front had plenty of lift, which helped trigger the storms. A couple storms became severe, and produced wind damage to Western NY:

10/26/08

This storm later produced small thunderstorms in Central NY, but nothing severe was reported. Here in Albany, we got nothing special from that front. However, that system set up a strong coastal storm, which had a huge impact on NYS. More on this later as I get more details.

Research Project On Severe Weather In NYS

2008-10-14T20:45:00.005-04:00

I'm doing research for one of my classes, and I chose to look at severe weather outbreaks in NYS that involves numerous wind damage reports. I have found three "cold" and three "warm" cases to study and compare. Results, as well as the full article, will be posted here. The paper is due in early November, and the presentation will be done by early December.

I've revamped my old site to make it more suitable for my collegiate needs. The linked page contains my research stuff:
http://www.albany.edu/~me381243/atm400research.html

Cold Grips NYS ... Fall Is Here

2008-10-04T09:39:00.002-04:00

As we make the transition from fun Summer days to miserable Autumn weather, one thing stands out the most: It gets really friggen cold at night! Albany got down to a chilly 36F last night, and I'm sure plenty of areas in NYS got some frost last night.

Now the leaves will start turning, making everything all nice and pretty...the one consolation for having to turn on the heat for the first time in four months.

I hope everyone has their warm clothes ready for this week!

Ike Remnants Impact NYS

2008-09-20T09:49:00.004-04:00

The remnants of hurricane Ike moved through NYS, which helped induce a severe line of storms as it propagated north and east. This line had little lightning, and only produced wind damage reports.

09/14/08

It stayed too far north of Albany to make it a concern of mine (and it went by around 4am... wasn't gonna get up for it). Hopefully we'll see one more thunderstorm before fall hits and temps go down, down, down.

September Brings A Lull

2008-09-11T09:06:00.003-04:00

With high pressure dominating the weather patterns over the northeast these last few weeks, little has been seen in the way of severe weather. In fact, NYS hasn't had any severe weather in a few weeks. In the meantime, Pennsylvania had a tornado when Gustav made its way up, and a strong cold front came through on the 9th and brought severe weather to our south and east. We got thunderstorms, but there were no severe reports.

It's been pretty quiet, and I'm still waiting for that one last hurrah before the thunderstorm season ends...so long as it's not at 8am like this last line of storms was.

Isolated Severe Cell Moves Over Long Island

2008-08-27T10:29:00.003-04:00

Strong winds brought down some wires in Suffolk County, bringing in the one and only severe report for the last week or so:

08/25/08

It looks like we have a chance for thunderstorms sometime this weekend. It would be nice to see a little action after having absolutely nothing for so long.

Severe Report Catch-Up Day... Last Time

2008-08-21T11:36:00.003-04:00

It's been pretty hectic these last few weeks, and I had to neglect the site a bit. Now I'm back, and ready to keep this thing updated. Let's begin by throwing all the severe reports up:

08/18/08

08/16/08

08/15/08

08/14/08

08/11/08

08/10/08

08/09/08

08/08/08

08/07/08

08/06/08

08/05/08

08/02/08

08/01/08

07/28/08

As you can see, it was quite an active period. Tornado warnings were issued on a few days, including for areas in the Bronx, but no tornado reports came in.

Now we're under a nice high pressure which will keep the severe weather away for awhile.

We'll continue to watch Tropical Storm Fay as it works its way through the southeast, providing some much-needed rain to that area. There's also Typhoon Nuri, which is threatening southeast China as its outer bands push onto the coast. Luckily, it should stay well south of Beijing, so it will have a minimal impact on the Olympics.

Getting pictures up has been a bit of a hassle with the new camcorder, but I'm working my way through what I've got. I have been putting pictures up here and there, but I still have footage to go through. I'll let you know when I've gone through everything.

Severe Weather Updates

2008-07-31T21:53:00.005-04:00

I'm friggen out of it. The long days are beginning to catch up to me. Only two more weeks of hell left.

Anyway, I was rewarded by those awesome storms, and pics shall be posted soon. I'm about halfway through the only really good video, and I will work on it a bit tonight and Saturday (Saturday is my first day completely "off" in over two weeks). Here's some reports for you all:

July 27th: The system that brought severe weather into my area yesterday completely annihilated the lower Northeast and Mid Atlantic states. Tons of wind and hail reports all over the place, but no tornadoes. NYC took a good pounding from these storms:

07/27/08

July 28th: A few stray storms around the NYS perimeter brought in some non-spectacular reports:

07/28/08

That's all from the last few days...

Stronger Than Expected Storms Impact NYS

2008-07-27T19:00:00.003-04:00

New York State was riddled with wind and hail reports yesterday, including the Albany area. Most of the storms stayed too far to my north for good stuff, but around 1:00am on the 27th we got hit by this awesome thunderstorm. There were lightning flashes every second! I watched that storm from 12:30 until 2:00, and managed to get some good footage. I'll try going through it tomorrow if I'm not hung up on homework and I'll post pics hopefully by Wednesday.

07/26/08

More storms today, with TONS of reports... but I was at work today, and the storms formed JUST to my south and east, so I did not get any footage today (though I tried... a few strikes were pretty close). Details on those reports tomorrow.

Severe Report Catch-Day Day...Again

2008-07-26T22:41:00.003-04:00

Reports all over the place! And with more severe weather tonight, we'll see plenty more.

Been busy with Job/Internship/Class this week. Here's some stuff:

07/20/08

07/21/08

07/22/08

07/23/08

07/24/08

It was an insane week for NYS. No tornadoes, though a warning or two was issued for them. Lots of cells had low-level rotation, but none of them made it to the ground.

And now for another exciting week with storms and severe weather!

Severe Weather Outlook And Forecast

2008-07-20T12:19:00.005-04:00

Today looks like our best chance for severe weather for this week...with a slight chance covering most of NYS:

07/20/08

There is a lot of disagreement between the models as what will develop this coming Wednesday. The general consensus is a pocket of heavy rain and storms will affect the eastern half of the state on Wednesday. However, large discrepancies occur as to when and where the upper-level trough develops in the Midwest, and where the cold front going through the region today will stall out as it moves off the coast. Tropical Storm Cristobal's path will also affect how all these weather patterns go down.

Lots of synoptic stuff going on this week. Be sure to keep a close eye on your short-term weather forecasts!

A Few More Reports For The Books

2008-07-20T12:10:00.006-04:00

Albany got jipped out of thunderstorms yesterday... It was all around us, but for some reason the Albany area itself did not get much more than a few heavy downpours. A few areas did manage to get severe weather in NYS:

07/19/08

I was cooped up in the NWS from 3pm-8pm yesterday, and I get to do that again today. Still might be able to see a good storm or two today.

Also, many areas that saw a good inch of rain in Central and Northern NYS will be getting much more rain today. Flooding will be a major concern for those areas today.

Storms Continue To Rip Through NYS

2008-07-20T12:05:00.002-04:00

The storms moved eastward as they cut paths of destruction through New York State:

07/18/08

We got a nice thunderstorm in Albany, but unfortunately I was at work and missed basically the whole thing.

Severe Weather Impacts Same Areas Again Today

2008-07-19T11:26:00.004-04:00

Areas of Western and Southern NYS saw another round of severe storms today:

07/17/08

Looks like we'll have plenty of action for the next week, so updates will be frequent!

Surprisingly Strong Storms Impact NYS

2008-07-19T11:24:00.002-04:00

Severe storms rolled through areas of Western, Southern, and Central NY as a surprise to most forecasters. Conditions looked too stable for severe weather, but this is a prime example of how Mother Nature can do whatever the heck she wants.

07/16/08

Pleasant And Warm Conditions For The Work Week

2008-07-14T11:00:00.002-04:00

Expect to see warm and dry weather for most of the week. There's a slight chance of showers for Wednesday night and Thursday morning, but for the most part it look like temps 5-10 degrees above normal in most areas. Extreme northern NYS might be on the cooler side Thursday as a cold front drapes itself over the state. That will get replaced by a warm front Friday, then the low pressure system is expected to hit NYS Saturday as a cold front swings through the region.

Cold Front Creates Several Wind Reports

2008-07-14T10:57:00.005-04:00

A cold front passed through most of the state yesterday, generating a few wind reports as it made its way through:

07/13/08

The front itself was mildly impressive, but unfortunately low and mid level lapse rates were abysmal, so there was not enough instability to have significant severe weather.

And now we must wait until Saturday.

Hazardous Weather Outlook Not Too Good

2008-07-09T22:28:00.004-04:00

After getting extremely bored while reading up on Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts, I decided to go ahead and post my synopsis for the next seven days for the Albany NWS WFO. While the forecast area does not emcompass the entirety of NYS, I believe it will hold true for the entire state, so I will make the few necessary changes to cover NYS.

.SYNOPSIS..
A SERIES OF SHORT WEATHER PATTERNS WILL PASS THROUGH THE STATE DURING THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR NORTH AND WEST WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. A HIGH PRESSURE WILL FORM TO OUR SOUTHWEST AND GRADUALLY WORK ITS WAY THROUGH THE STATE FRIDAY. ALSO, A SHORT WAVE JUST TO OUR NORTH IN CANADA WILL PASS WEST TO EAST FRIDAY NIGHT, PROVIDING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE. FOLLOWING THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM, A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ENTER THE STATE SATURDAY, PROVIDING THE HIGHEST TEMPS IN THE STATE FOR THIS UPCOMING WEEK. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL ENTER THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. AFTER THIS SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST MONDAY MORNING, IT WILL BE REPLACED BY A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM, WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPS SEASONAL WITH DRY CONDITIONS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

So, it looks like that Sunday is looking like our only chance for severe weather for the next week. I'll try to keep posting during this next week to keep things up-to-date, but with my class starting and some work to be done at the NWS, I may only get one or two updates in the next week.

Here's hoping for severe weather Sunday!

Severe Report Catch Up Day

2008-07-07T21:33:00.003-04:00

Just catching up on the severe weather reports... since I've been busy during all of last week, or was away from my computer. Figured I should catch up, since severe weather may be gracing us New Yorkers in the coming days.

06/29/08

Western and Central NY got the brunt of this day's storms, while the NYC area managed a few hits of their own.

07/01/08

Just one report for this day in Southern NY.

07/02/08

Another single-report day to tack onto the list.

That's it for reports in the last week or so.

Severe Weather in Staten Island! 6/28 AND 6/29!

2008-07-01T12:54:00.012-04:00

Wow! Staten Island finally got some decent thunderstorms these past few days!

The first occurred on Saturday, and I was lucky enough to be home after work. I went down to Miller Field because the radar was looking quite nice. Sure enough, I saw a nice funnel cloud coming over Todt Hill, but then it went away :( Within minutes, the situation went from calm to FUBAR. The rainfall rate was so intense, my wipers on full speed did nothing. I had to pull over to the side of the road and wait for it to back off a bit. I then drove around for a bit in what seemed like a lake. Pictures of this storm can be found here

The second, even better storm system came through Sunday. It was associated with the unusually strong cold front. SPC had us in a nice "SLIGHT" risk area, and it sure did verify. I was at work and managed to go on break literally as the storms began. I noticed constant lightning (numerous bolts of CG), thunderclaps and rolling thunder, and rotation. Then, the rain came...flash flooding seemed to occur instantly, and sure enough we did get hail - NWS confirmed .75" diameter hail in the Annadale section of the island.

And there was an even better-looking funnel cloud, and I was able to snap a picture of this one :)

As you can see, this is a genuine funnel cloud, and the green is the sign of the hail that we had.

This is a group of pictures that I took from Sunday's storm.

One Report To... Report

2008-06-30T12:46:00.002-04:00

Wind damage in Northeast NYS gave us our only report for today:

06/28/08

Not too much excitement there.

...Almost caught up!

Storms Hit Closer To Home, Still Nothing To See

2008-06-29T22:00:00.001-04:00

Storms eluded me once again today, as seen here:

06/27/08

Still waiting for that sweet one!

Severe Weather Scrape NYS Borders

2008-06-29T21:55:00.002-04:00

Storms along the SW and NW borders of NYS were hit by a few storms, bringing up several severe weather reports:

06/26/08

The good stuff stayed out of the state for the most part.

Hail Along The East Border

2008-06-26T14:47:00.002-04:00

A couple of rather unexpected storms hit NYS, just north and east of Albany, dropping some hail reports:

06/24/08

The surprisingly-unstable air mass remained in New England for the majority of the day, yet was never given a watch box for some reason. The convective outlook was changed to a slight risk in the northeast when severe weather began breaking out in eastern Massachusetts, but that was it.

Youtube Video Going Up

2008-06-24T16:17:00.006-04:00

I'm currently uploading a video of my brief chase from June 22, 2008 to youtube... and it's taking a loooong while to get it fully uploaded. I'll edit this post when it's ready to be viewed.

UPDATE:
Finally uploaded... ready to watch!

Severe Storms Hit NYS, Miss Bloggers

2008-06-24T13:07:00.002-04:00

Scattered hail and wind reports came in yesterday, all of which missed myself and Mark M. We're still looking for bloggers to cover more of NYS, so if you're interested, drop us an e-mail!

06/23/08

Today, we have scattered showers and storms. Probably not going to have severe weather in Albany today, but there is a slim chance.

Funnel Cloud Spotted Near Albany

2008-06-23T22:32:00.002-04:00

I went out after a tornado warning posted just north of me. I saw and recorded a wall cloud and possible funnel cloud with this storm, which also produced two-inch hail.

06/22/08

Other than that, it was pretty calm around Albany. Most of the other severe reports were south and east, with isolated reports in Central NY.

Pictures of the storm are up! Also, a friend of mine gave me a nice hail picture from the June 16 storm... be sure to check that out, too (1.75-inch hail stone!)

More Reports

2008-06-22T23:22:00.002-04:00

A few more reports for today...

06/21/08

Looking for a more interesting day on Sunday.

A Few Storms Pass

2008-06-22T23:11:00.002-04:00

A few storms caused a ruckus in Southern NY, providing NYS with some wind and hail.

06/20/08

Nothing too special for today. Hopefully more interesting stuff to come!

Stormy Weather Despite Cooler Temps

2008-06-19T15:40:00.002-04:00

The cooler-than-average temperatures aren't helping us get severe weather, but NYS did mange to sneak in a few reports of wind and hail for the 18th:

06/18/08

We got a thunderstorm here in Albany, but it wasn't that spectacular. I still need to go through some footage, but that will have to wait because I'll be out of Albany until Sunday.

NYS Gets Lit Up With Green

2008-06-18T22:16:00.005-04:00

Many, MANY hail reports throughout NYS, along with some spotty wind reports. Two-inch hail was reported in the town over from me. I was working up in Latham, so unfortunately I did not get the best view for these storms. I did manage to grab a few shots from it, which can be seen in the pictures area.

06/16/08

There was even a confirmed tornado in Orange County! Sure, it was an EF0 that only lasted a short while, but it was there!

Now for a long cold stretch.

Onondaga County Gets Some Hail

2008-06-18T22:14:00.002-04:00

One report for June 15th for hail that hit about 6-7 miles away from my parent's house:

06/15/2008

Nothing else that's special for this day.

NYS Goes Moderate, Winds Improve

2008-06-16T08:45:00.003-04:00

Today's forecast wind is looking much more favorable for storm development. Not only has the speed shear improved, but low-level directional shear is looking much better than it did yesterday. With this increased hazard, parts of NYS have been placed in the moderate area for severe weather. Wind is still the greatest concern, but now I can actually throw in the possibility of a tornado. Some medium- and even possibly large-sized hail is also possible with these storms today.

06/16/2008

Cameras are good to go!

Severe Storms Hit Southern NYS

2008-06-15T20:04:00.002-04:00

Just catching up on my severe reports here. Had some wind and hail reports in southern NYS yesterday. NYC got some nice storms as well, as reported by Mark M.

06/14/2008

As for me, I saw some lightning, but it wasn't that special. I tried to get a little something photographed, but the storm wasn't photogenic. Perhaps tomorrow's storms will show off their wild side for me.

Tomorrow Keeps Looking Better

2008-06-15T17:40:00.004-04:00

It looks like Albany will get some initial rain and thunderstorms in the late morning hours, followed by daytime heating and then perhaps some severe thunderstorms in the evening. The severe threat in NYS is approaching the moderate scale, with parts of southern NYS in the 30% chance with a hashed area.

06/16/2008

The indices and lapse rate are looking good, but the wind profile is lacking in the severe department. Very little directional shear and weak-to-moderate speed shear will hinder the development of strong storms. Wind damage and small hail are certainly a concern with the storms.

After tomorrow, expect a period of cooler-than-average temperatures and chance of rain showers. This pattern is likely to last through the weekend, so updates will be less frequent for the next week or so.

June 16 Is Looking Good For Storms

2008-06-14T11:12:00.006-04:00

Today's Day 3 Outlook from the SPC is showing a good portion of NYS in the slight-risk area for severe storms on June 16:

06/16/2008

Steep lapse rates and plenty of moisture will definitely get us some boomers, but the less-than-ideal wind speed shear and minimal directional wind shear will hinder our ability to get severe storms in NYS.

The models are in a bit of disagreement with the west-east movement of this incoming storm, so there's still room for this forecast to change.

Western NY Gets Wind, Hail

2008-06-14T10:50:00.006-04:00

Slow-moving storms lumbered across Western NY yesterday evening, producing about a dozen wind damage reports along with one hail report. A couple of these storms also produced localized flooding in isolated areas. At one point, the doppler radar observed a cell south of Rochester producing rainfall at a rate of 3.5 - 4 inches per hour!

06/13/2008

The weakening system is heading east today, which will hopefully give the rest of NYS some action before it moves on. Most of the storms will be garden variety, but a few might become severe. The main concern for today is localized flooding, as storms will likely move very slowly due to weak upper-level winds.

Skies are clear here in Albany, which was expected. The storms are supposed to hit us in the early evening, which is good because I have to work until 5:00pm, so hopefully I won't miss anything.

Thunderstorms Possible Tomorrow In My Area

2008-06-13T17:47:00.005-04:00

There's some storms in western NY today, which will probably spawn a severe report or two. Tomorrow, the threat extends into all of NYS. Unfortunately, conditions will be far from ideal for severe weather, but we might be able to still get some good lightning photos from the storms that do pop up.

The storms should hold off until I get out of work, and then it's on to either the campus or the NWS to observe the weather.

WUnderground Widget

2008-06-12T01:33:00.004-04:00

I've added a "Weather Sticker", which is provided by WUnderground. I think it adds a nice little touch to the blog. I'd also like to add the ENX radar if I can find a way to embed that for free.

NYS Gets Butchered By Storms

2008-06-11T19:11:00.004-04:00

NYS, as well as most of the New England and Mid Atlantic states, got ripped a new one by the frontal passage. It was quite an exciting day all over, and Albany finally took a direct hit by a thunderstorm! Wind damage was reported in the nearby town of Colonie. Mark M. also reports that NYC got hit hard as well, and he might have pictures for us soon (if he can find the memory card!).

06/10/08

Pictures are up from my footage, and I hope to append more photos to it from my actual camcorder, which seems to have difficulty with lightning in low light. I will have to fiddle around with it a bit. Luckily I was intelligent enough to also pull out my old camera to at least supply some photos for now.

Another Day, Another Day Of Reports

2008-06-11T19:05:00.003-04:00

Just a couple of wind reports for today. One injury was reported due to the wind in Clinton County.

06/09/08

Not the most exciting of days, with one day left for the heat wave.

The NYS Severe Weather Continues

2008-06-11T19:00:00.003-04:00

Hail and wind again reported in NYS, narrowly missing Albany yet again. Although NYC did get scraped, I don't believe Mark M. was able to get much from it.

06/08/08